Executive Summary 2Oklahoma City, Oklahoma Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of May 1, 2022
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
Executive Summary
Housing Market Area Description
The Oklahoma City Housing Market Area (HMA) is
coterminous with the Oklahoma City, OK Metropolitan
Statistical Area and includes Canadian, Cleveland,
Grady, Lincoln, Logan, McClain, and Oklahoma
Counties in central Oklahoma. The HMA includes the
Oklahoma state capital, the University of Oklahoma
(OU), and Tinker Air Force Base (AFB), all of which
contribute to the economic stability of the HMA.
The current population of the HMA is estimated
at 1.46 million.
Tools and Resources
Find interim updates for this metropolitan area, and select geographies nationally, at PD&R’s
Market-at-a-Glance tool.
Additional data for the HMA can be found in this report’s supplemental tables.
For information on HUD-supported activity in this area, see the Community Assessment Reporting Tool.
Executive Summary 3Oklahoma City, Oklahoma Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of May 1, 2022
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
Market Qualifiers
The Oklahoma City HMA economy expanded
during the past year as it recovered from severe
job losses that occurred during March and April
2020 from the COVID-19 pandemic. As of April
2022, all of the 71,200 jobs lost in March and
April 2020 were recovered (monthly data, not
seasonally adjusted). During the 12 months ending
April 2022, nonfarm payrolls increased in 8 of 11
sectors. The leisure and hospitality sector led job
growth, with gains that accounted for more than
one-third of the total increase in nonfarm payrolls
during the period. During the 3-year forecast
period, nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase
an average of 1.5 percent annually.
The home sales vacancy rate is currently
estimated at 1.4 percent, down from 2.2 percent
in April 2010 when conditions were soft. The
current supply of homes for sale is down
considerably compared with April 2010, when
the supply of home inventory was 6.7 months.
During the 12 months ending April 2022, new
and existing home sales in the HMA totaled
37,200, unchanged compared with a year earlier
(CoreLogic, Inc.). The average price for a home
increased 16 percent to $234,200, representing
the fastest increase in the average sale price
for a home since at least 2001. During the next
3 years, demand is estimated for 20,150 new
homes. The 5,250 homes under construction
will satisfy a portion of that demand.
Rental market conditions are balanced in the
HMA as of May 1, 2022, compared with soft
conditions in April 2010. The apartment market
is also balanced, with an average vacancy rate
of 4.8 percent during the first quarter of 2022,
down from 6.0 percent a year earlier and from
10.1 percent during the first quarter of 2010
(Moody’s Analytics REIS). The average apartment
rent during the first quarter of 2022 increased
11 percent to $800 from a year earlier. During the
forecast period, demand is estimated for 5,100
new rental units. The 2,175 units currently under
construction and 270 units in final planning are
expected to satisfy part of that demand.
Economy
Strong: During the 12 months
ending April 2022, nonfarm payrolls
in the Oklahoma City HMA increased
by 20,700, or 3.3 percent, to
650,300 jobs.
Rental Market
Balanced: The rental vacancy
rate is currently estimated
at 8.5 percent, down from
10.4 percent in 2010.
Sales Market
Tight: The HMA had a 1.6-month
supply of homes for sale in April
2022, down from 1.8 months a
year earlier and from 3.1 months
in April 2020, when conditions
were balanced (Zillow Group).
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Economic Conditions 4
Population and Households 11
Home Sales Market 16
Rental Market 21
Terminology Definitions and Notes 25
3-Year Housing Demand Forecast
Sales Units Rental Units
Oklahoma City HMA
Total Demand 20 ,150 5,100
Under Construction 5,250 2,175
Notes: Total demand represents estimated production necessary to achieve a balanced market at the end of the forecast period. Units under
construction as of May 1, 2022. The forecast period is May 1, 2022, to May 1, 2025.
Source: Estimates by the analyst
Economic Conditions 4Oklahoma City, Oklahoma Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of May 1, 2022
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
Economic Conditions
Largest Sector: Government
The government sector has been the
largest sector in the Oklahoma City HMA
every year since at least 1990, accounting
for an average of approximately one-fifth
of nonfarm payrolls during the period.
Primary Local Economic Factors
The HMA economy depends heavily on the
government sector, with 126,000 jobs during the
12 months ending April 2022, or 19 percent of all
nonfarm payrolls (Figure 1). Five of the 10 largest
employers in the HMA are in the government
sector (Table 1). The State of Oklahoma is the
largest employer in the HMA, with 44,400
workers. The second largest employer is Tinker
Air Force Base (AFB), which employs 26,000
(19,000 civilians and 7,000 active-duty military
personnel) and has an economic impact on the
HMA of more than $4.8 billion annually (Greater
Oklahoma City Chamber). Tinker AFB, located
in the southern portion of Oklahoma County, is
also the largest single-site employer in the state
of Oklahoma. The third largest employer is the
University of Oklahoma (OU), with a combined
16,100 employees at the main campus in the city
of Norman in Cleveland County and at the Health
Sciences Center near downtown Oklahoma City.
OU has an annual economic impact of $2.6 billion
and accounts for a combined 47,500 direct and
indirect jobs in the HMA (University of Oklahoma).
Name of Employer Nonfarm Payroll Sector Number of Employees
State of Oklahoma Government 44,400
Tinker Air Force Base (AFB) Government 26,000
University of Oklahoma Government 16,100
INTEGRIS Health Education & Health Services 11,000
Amazon.com, Inc. Transportation & Utilities 8,000
Hobby Lobby Stores, Inc. Wholesale & Retail Trade 6,500
Mercy Education & Health Services 5,500
Federal Aviation Administration Government 5,150
City of Oklahoma City Government 4,800
SSM Health Education & Health Services 4,000
Table 1. Major Employers in the Oklahoma City HMA
Notes: Excludes local school districts. Data include military personnel, who are generally not included in nonfarm payroll survey data.
Sources: Greater Oklahoma City Partnership; U.S. Department of Defense; employers
Mining, Logging, & Construction 6%
Manufacturing 5%
Wholesale 3%
Retail 11%
Transportation & Utilities 5%
Information 1%
Financial Activities 5%
Professional & Business Services 13%
Leisure & Hospitality 11%
Other Services 4%
Federal 5%
State 7%
Local 8%
Education
& Health
Services
15%
Health 14% Education 2%
Government
19%
Trade 14%
Total
650.3
Notes: Military jobs are not included in these data. Total nonfarm payroll is in thousands. Percentages may not add to 100 percent due to rounding.
Based on 12-month averages through April 2022.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Figure 1. Share of Nonfarm Payroll Jobs in the Oklahoma City HMA, by Sector
Economic Conditions 5Oklahoma City, Oklahoma Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of May 1, 2022
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
The Mike Monroney Aeronautical Center of the
Federal Aviation Administration is the eighth
largest employer, with 5,150 employees. The
aerospace industry, which includes jobs in
multiple sectors, continues to grow in the HMA.
Approximately 300 aerospace-related firms, with
a combined 43,000 government and private
sector employees earning an average annual
salary of $78,600, are located in the HMA
(Greater Oklahoma City Chamber: Industry
Survey and Economic Impact Assessment 2020).
2020 Recession and Recovery
The impacts of COVID-19 were significant in the
Oklahoma City HMA. On a monthly basis, nonfarm
payrolls in the HMA declined by 71,200 jobs, or
10.8 percent, during the months of March and
April 2020 (not seasonally adjusted), a period
that coincided with the national COVID-19
recession. Though job losses occurred in every
job sector, declines were greatest in sectors
where jobs could not be performed remotely.
Nonfarm payroll decreases were greatest in the
leisure and hospitality sector, which declined
by 26,000 jobs, or 35.3 percent, accounting for
more than one-third of all job losses during March
and April 2020. Losses were also significant
in the wholesale and retail trade sector, which
declined by 9,200 jobs, or 10.2 percent. The
retail trade subsector, which decreased by
7,700, or 11.6 percent, accounted for more than
four-fifths of the total decrease in payrolls in
the sector. Contributing to the job losses in the
leisure and hospitality sector and the retail trade subsector were numerous measures implemented by
local municipalities in the HMA to slow the spread of COVID-19, including restrictions on business hours
and capacity at restaurants and retail stores. These restrictions were lifted by the spring of 2021, which
contributed to the HMA economy regaining all of the jobs lost during March and April 2020 overall, and
8 of 11 job sectors have recovered fully. Monthly job growth since May 2020 was greatest in the leisure
and hospitality sector, which gained 29,800 jobs, a 62.5-percent increase compared with April 2020.
Current Conditions—Nonfarm Payrolls
During the 12 months ending April 2022, nonfarm payrolls in the Oklahoma City HMA increased by 20,700,
or 3.3 percent, to 650,300 jobs (Table 2), compared with a 4.0-percent decrease a year earlier. Although job
growth occurred in 8 of 11 sectors during the period, gains were greatest in the leisure and hospitality sector,
up by 7,200, or 11.0 percent, to 72,900, compared with a decrease of 9.4 percent a year earlier. Job growth
was also strong in the professional and business services sector, which increased by 4,900, or 6.0 percent, to
86,200, compared with a 7.0-percent decrease a year earlier. Consumer Cellular, Inc. opened a new customer
Table 2. 12-Month Average Nonfarm Payroll Jobs (1,000s) in the Oklahoma City HMA, by Sector
12 Months Ending
April 2021
12 Months Ending
April 2022
Absolute Change Percentage Change
Total Nonfarm Payroll Jobs 629.6 650.3 20.7 3.3
Goods-Producing Sectors 72.7 73.6 0.9 1.2
Mining, Logging, & Construction 40.7 40.2 -0.5 -1.2
Manufacturing 32.0 33.4 1.4 4.4
Service-Providing Sectors 556.9 576.8 19.9 3.6
Wholesale & Retail Trade 88.3 91.3 3.0 3.4
Transportation & Utilities 31.5 33.3 1.8 5.7
Information 5.7 5.6 -0.1 -1.8
Financial Activities 34.2 35.3 1.1 3.2
Professional & Business Services 81.3 86.2 4.9 6.0
Education & Health Services 97.0 98.8 1.8 1.9
Leisure & Hospitality 65.7 72.9 7.2 11.0
Other Services 26.6 27.4 0.8 3.0
Government 126.6 126.0 -0.6 -0.5
Notes: Military jobs are not included in these data. Based on 12-month averages through April 2021 and April 2022. Numbers may not add to totals
due to rounding. Data are in thousands.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Economic Conditions 6Oklahoma City, Oklahoma Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of May 1, 2022
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
service center in the HMA in the spring of 2022, resulting in 300 new jobs and
contributing to gains in the sector. Partly offsetting these gains, nonfarm payrolls
declined in the government sector by 600, or 0.5 percent, compared with a
decrease of 3.3 percent a year prior. The decline during the 12 months ending
April 2022 occurred in all three subsectors, with the state government subsector
decreasing 0.7 percent and the federal government and the local government
subsectors each decreasing 0.3 percent. Job losses also occurred in the mining,
Economic Periods of Significance
2001 Through 2003
During 2001, nonfarm payrolls increased 1.2 percent, before declining during
2002 and 2003 by an average of 6,600, or 1.2 percent, annually (Figure 2).
The local economic downturn during 2002 and 2003 was partly because of
the impacts of the 2001 national recession. Job declines occurred in several
sectors during 2002 and 2003 but were greatest in the manufacturing sector,
which decreased by an average of 4,900, or 10.6 percent, annually. That
decrease reflected national trends in this sector, which declined an average
of 6.1 percent annually during the same period. Job losses in the HMA during
the period were partly offset by gains in the education and health services
sector, which increased by an average of 2,300, or 3.4 percent, annually.
Widespread gains in the education and health services sector during that
period also reflected national trends in this sector, which increased an
average of 3.2 percent annually.
2004 Through 2008
Economic expansion occurred each year from 2004 through 2008, when
nonfarm payrolls increased by an average of 9,300 jobs, or 1.7 percent,
annually. The mining, logging, and construction sector led job growth
during this period, with average annual gains of 2,600 jobs, or 7.4 percent.
Increased production stemming from oil and natural gas price increases
contributed to gains in the sector. Also contributing to job growth in the sector
were numerous revitalization projects in the city of Oklahoma City funded
logging, and construction sector, down by 500, or 1.2 percent, to 40,200,
compared with a decline of 16.6 percent a year ago. The mining and logging
subsector decreased by 300 jobs, or 3.2 percent, to 9,200. By comparison, the
mining and logging subsector declined by 7,000, or 42.4 percent, during the
12 months ending April 2021 because of widespread layoffs at energy-related
companies stemming from decreased travel nationally, which consequently
diminished the demand for oil.
National Recession Nonfarm Payrolls
700
650
600
550
500
Apr-00
Apr-01
Apr-02
Apr-03
Apr-04
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Apr-20
Apr-21
Apr-22
Nonfarm Payrolls (in Thousands)
Notes: Military jobs are not included in these data. 12-month moving average.
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research
Figure 2. 12-Month Average Nonfarm Payrolls in the Oklahoma City HMA
by Metropolitan Area Projects (MAPS), an economic development initiative
passed by Oklahoma City voters. Revitalization efforts, totaling more than
$1.5 billion, included the construction of a minor league baseball stadium,
sports arena, and the Bricktown Canal (a mile-long river canal that includes
Economic Conditions 7Oklahoma City, Oklahoma Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of May 1, 2022
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
water taxi services and tours for visitors). Job growth was also strong in the
education and health services sector, which increased by an average of 2,000
jobs, or 2.7 percent, annually.
2009 Through 2010
The effects of the Great Recession, which began in December 2007 and
ended in June 2009, did not reach the HMA until early 2009. During 2009
and 2010, nonfarm payrolls in the HMA decreased by an average of 8,700
jobs, or 1.5 percent, annually. Job losses were greatest in the manufacturing
sector, which decreased by an average of 3,000 jobs, or 8.5 percent, annually.
Declines were also significant in the mining, logging, and construction and the
professional and business services sectors, each decreasing by an average
of 2,100, or 4.9 and 2.8 percent, respectively. Widespread layoffs in the
manufacturing and the mining, logging, and construction sectors during the
period reflected national trends in these sectors, with average declines of
7.3 and 11.4 percent annually, respectively. Approximately one-fourth of the job
losses in the professional and business services sector, both in the HMA and
nationwide, occurred in the temporary help services industry, partly stemming
from decreased manufacturing production. According to the U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics, manufacturing establishments, which often utilize temporary
help agencies to staff positions in addition to hiring directly, are the primary
clients of temporary help agencies for production workers, accounting for
85 percent of the temporary help services industry production worker payrolls.
Average annual gains in the government sector in the HMA of 1,800 jobs, or
1.5 percent, partially offset overall losses during this period, primarily because of
increased hiring in the federal and local government subsectors. The federal
government subsector increased by an average of 1,200 jobs, or 4.6 percent,
annually, partly because of expansions at the Mike Monroney Aeronautical
Center of the Federal Aviation Administration. The local government subsector
gained an average of 500 jobs, or 1.0 percent, annually. The opening of the
Riverwind Hotel at the Riverwind Casino in the city of Norman by the Choctaw
Nation of Oklahoma contributed to increased employment in this subsector,
resulting in 400 new jobs.
2011 Through 2015
The Oklahoma City HMA economy began to expand again in earnest in 2011,
and by mid-2012 it had surpassed prerecession payroll levels. Overall, from
2011 through 2015, nonfarm payrolls increased by an average of 12,700
jobs, or 2.1 percent, annually, to 630,400 jobs, with gains in nearly every
sector. The wholesale and retail trade sector led gains, with an average
annual increase of 2,300 jobs, or 2.8 percent. The opening of 11 new stores
by Walmart Inc., primarily in growing suburban communities surrounding
Oklahoma City, resulted in a combined 1,250 new jobs and contributed to job
growth in this sector. The leisure and hospitality sector gained an average of
2,100 jobs, or 3.4 percent, annually. The popularity of the National Basketball
Association team, the Oklahoma City Thunder, which had a local economic
impact of more than $60 million annually during this period (City of Oklahoma
City), contributed to sector gains.
2016
Nonfarm payrolls declined during 2016 because of job losses stemming from
a sharp drop in oil prices that began in 2014. During 2016, nonfarm payrolls
decreased by 600 jobs, or 0.1 percent, to 629,800. Job losses were greatest in
the mining and logging subsector, which decreased by 3,400, or 17.1 percent,
to 16,500 jobs. Widespread layoffs at energy-related companies stemming
from a decline in oil prices contributed to the decrease in this subsector,
consequently diminishing oil production. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude
oil, considered a benchmark for domestic oil pricing, declined from a price
of $107 per barrel in July 2014 to $26 per barrel by February 2016 (Federal
Reserve Bank of St. Louis). Job losses also occurred in the manufacturing
sector, declining by 2,900, or 7.8 percent. More than one-fourth of job
losses in this sector occurred in the mining and oil and gas field machinery
manufacturing industry, which decreased by 760, or 28.4 percent. Partly
offsetting nonfarm payroll losses were increases in jobs in the leisure and
hospitality sector and the government sector, each gaining 2,000 jobs, or 2.9
and 1.6 percent, respectively. Local sports teams and several new recreation
Economic Conditions 8Oklahoma City, Oklahoma Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of May 1, 2022
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
venues throughout the HMA contributed to gains
in the leisure and hospitality sector. The opening
of the 21c Museum Hotel in downtown Oklahoma
City in July 2016 also contributed to an increase in
jobs in the sector, resulting in approximately 140
new jobs. The 21c Museum Hotel, converted from
the former Oklahoma City Ford Motor Company
Assembly Plant in 2016, is listed with The National
Register of Historic Places (National Park Service).
An increase of nearly 1,000 aircraft maintenance
personnel at Tinker AFB, to accommodate
the greater workload assigned to the base,
contributed to gains in the government sector.
2017 Through 2019
The HMA economy expanded from 2017 through
2019, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by an
average of 10,400, or 1.6 percent, annually. The
professional and business services sector led
job growth during the period, with an average
increase of 2,800, or 3.4 percent, annually.
Job growth in the professional, scientific, and
technical services subsector accounted for nearly
40 percent of the sector growth. During the
period, the subsector increased by an average of
1,100, or 3.2 percent, annually. Contributing to job
growth in the subsector were numerous business
expansions and openings. CACI International
Inc, which provides engineering
and information
support services for government
agencies,
expanded its operations in the city of Oklahoma
City in 2018, resulting in 550 new
jobs. Also
contributing to growth in the subsector
were 150
new jobs at Rural Sourcing, a computer software
design company that opened a new facility near downtown Oklahoma City in 2019. Job growth was also
strong from 2017 through 2019 in the education and health services sector. During the period, the sector
increased by an average of 2,000, or 2.2 percent, annually. Numerous hospital expansions throughout
the HMA contributed to gains in the sector, including several new hospitals completed by INTEGRIS Health
and Mercy, the fourth and seventh largest employers in the HMA, with 11,000 and 5,500 employees,
respectively. The education and health services sector is currently the second largest job sector in the
HMA and has increased by an average of 1,600 jobs annually since 2001, accounting for nearly one-third
of nonfarm payroll growth in the HMA overall during the period. The transportation and utilities sector
gained an average of 1,800 jobs, or 8.3 percent, annually from 2017 through 2019, partly because of two
new fulfillment centers opened by Amazon.com, Inc., which resulted in a combined 1,750 new full-time
jobs. Amazon.com, Inc. is the fifth largest employer in the HMA, with 8,000 employees. The transportation
and utilities sector has grown at the fastest pace among all job sectors since 2001, increasing an average
of 3.0 percent, or by 700 jobs, annually (Figure 3). Increased e-commerce contributed to gains in the
sector from 2017 through 2019, but it also contributed to a decline in the wholesale and retail trade sector
during the same period, which decreased by an average of 600 jobs, or 0.7 percent, annually.
Notes: Military jobs are not included in these data. The current date is May 1, 2022.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Total Nonfarm Payroll Jobs
Goods-Producing Sectors
Mining, Logging, & Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing Sectors
Wholesale & Retail Trade
Transportation & Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & Business Services
Education & Health Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Other Services
Government
-70.00 -50.00 -30.00 -10.00 10.00 30.00 50.00 70.00 90.00
Change in Jobs (%)
Figure 3. Sector Growth in the Oklahoma City HMA, 2001 to Current
Economic Conditions 9Oklahoma City, Oklahoma Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of May 1, 2022
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
Job Centers by County
Jobs in the HMA are primarily located in
Oklahoma and Cleveland Counties. Jobs within
Oklahoma County account for an estimated
74 percent of the total number of jobs within the
HMA (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, estimates by
the analyst; Table 3). Oklahoma County includes
the state capital, Tinker AFB, and the central
business district in downtown Oklahoma City.
Jobs in Cleveland County, where the OU main
campus is located, account for an estimated
14 percent of the total number of jobs in the HMA.
The remaining five counties, which include mostly
suburban and rural areas, account for a combined
12 percent of the jobs in the HMA.
Unemployment Trends
Since 2000, the relatively stable economy of the
HMA has contributed to lower unemployment
rates compared with national rates. From 2000
through 2008, the average annual unemployment
rate in the HMA was 4.0 percent, compared
with the 5.1-percent national rate (Figure 4).
During 2009, the unemployment rate of the HMA
increased as a result of the Great Recession to
6.1 percent, compared with 9.3 percent nationally.
Despite significant job losses in the HMA during
2009, the labor force increased by 8,300, or 1.5
percent, compared with a decrease of 0.1 percent
nationally. An influx of people who moved to the
HMA from other areas of the nation for more
employment opportunities contributed to the
Oklahoma City HMA Nation
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
Unemployment Rate (%)
Apr-00
Apr-01
Apr-02
Apr-03
Apr-04
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Apr-20
Apr-21
Apr-22
Figure 4. 12-Month Average Unemployment Rate in the Oklahoma City HMA and the Nation
Notes: Active duty military personnel are not included in these data. Based on the 12-month moving average.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Table 3. Current Estimated Percent Share of Nonfarm Payrolls in the Oklahoma City HMA, by County
Oklahoma County 74
Cleveland County 14
Canadian County 6
Grady County 2
McClain County 2
Lincoln County 1
Logan County 1
Note: Military jobs are not included in these data.
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; estimates by the analyst
increase in labor force in the HMA. From 2010 through 2019, the unemployment rate in the HMA fluctuated
but generally declined to 2.9 percent by the end of 2019, compared with 3.7 percent nationally. Job
growth during most years during the period contributed to the decrease in the unemployment rate in the
HMA. Strong job growth in the HMA during the 12 months ending April 2022 contributed to an average
Economic Conditions 10Oklahoma City, Oklahoma Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of May 1, 2022
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
unemployment rate of 3.0 percent. By comparison, the average rate a year
earlier was 5.9 percent, and the recent peak level of 6.6 percent occurred
during the 12 months ending March 2021 as a result of widespread layoffs
stemming from the impacts of COVID-19. Nationally, the unemployment rate
during the 12 months ending April 2022 was 4.5 percent, down from a recent
peak level of 8.7 percent during the 12 months ending March 2021.
Forecast
During the 3-year forecast period, nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase
by an average of 1.5 percent annually. Job growth is expected to be slower
during the first year of the forecast period partly because of expected adverse
impacts on the local economy from high inflation and increased interest rates.
Job growth is expected to strengthen each year during the second and third
year of the forecast period. Job growth is expected to be strong in several
sectors, including the professional and business services sector. Advanced
Call Center Technologies, LLC announced in March 2022 plans to open a
new office in the city of Norman. The office is expected to open in late 2022
and result in 770 new jobs in call center, back-office, and customer support
operations. Job growth is also expected to be strong in the local government
subsector and the leisure and hospitality sector. The Chickasaw Nation Native
American Tribe plans to develop the OKANA Resort & Indoor Water Park near
downtown Oklahoma City. The development will be located adjacent to the
recently-completed First Americans Museum. OKANA Resort & Indoor Water
Park will include an 11-story, 404-room hotel, indoor water park, amphitheater,
lagoon, and a Native American art market. The development is expected to
be completed by the spring of 2024 and employ 500 full-time workers. The
venue is expected to result in an increase in tourism in the HMA, which will
also benefit the leisure and hospitality sector.
Population and Households 11Oklahoma City, Oklahoma Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of May 1, 2022
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
Population and
Households
Current Population: 1.46 Million
Population growth and net in-migration
have occurred every year since 2000 in
the Oklahoma City HMA, despite four local
economic downturns occurring during
the period.
Population Trends
The current population of the Oklahoma City
HMA
is an estimated 1.46 million, reflecting
an average increase of 16,850, or 1.3 percent,
annually since
2010 (Table 4). During this period,
net in-migration
accounted for approximately
63 percent of the population growth. From 2000
to 2004, the HMA
population increased by an
average of 11,800 people, or 1.1 percent, annually
(U.S. Census Bureau
decennial census count and
population estimates as of July 1; Figure 5). During
the period, net in-migration accounted for only
40 percent of population growth, reflecting job
losses in the HMA during 2002 and 2003. Job
growth during
the following period contributed to
the population
increasing from 2004 to 2008 by
an average of 17,800, or 1.5 percent, annually,
with net in-migration accounting for 52 percent
of population growth. From 2008 to 2010,
population growth in the HMA increased to an
average of 20,750 people, or 1.7 percent, annually.
During the period,
net in-migration accounted
2000–2001
2001–2002
2002–2003
2003–2004
2004–2005
2005–2006
2006–2007
2007–2008
2008–2009
2009–2010
2010–2011
2011–2012
2012–2013
2013–2014
2014–2015
2015–2016
2016–2017
2017–2018
2018–2019
2019–2020
2020–2021
2021–Current
Current–Forecast
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Population Change
Net Natural Change Net Migration Population Growth
Figure 5. Components of Population Change in the Oklahoma City HMA, 2000 Through the Forecast
Notes: Data displayed are average annual totals. The forecast period is from the current date (May 1, 2022) to May 1, 2025.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; current to forecast—estimates by the analyst
Population
Quick Facts
2010 Current Forecast
Population 1,252,987 1,456,000 1,509,000
Average Annual Change 15,750 16,850 17,650
Percentage Change 1.4 1.3 1.2
Household
Quick Facts
2010 Current Forecast
Households 489,654 565,900 586,900
Average Annual Change 6,000 6,300 7,000
Percentage Change 1.3 1.2 1.2
Notes: Average annual changes and percentage changes are based on averages from 2000 to 2010, 2010 to current, and current to forecast.
The forecast period is from the current date (May 1, 2022) to May 1, 2025.
Sources: 2000 and 2010—2000 Census and 2010 Census; current and forecast—estimates by the analyst
Table 4. Oklahoma City HMA Population and Household Quick Facts
for approximately 58 percent of the population growth, or 12,050 people annually, even though nonfarm
payrolls significantly declined during much of the period. Job seekers were drawn to the HMA during that
period because of the relatively low unemployment rate compared with the nation. From 2010 to 2016,
the population of the HMA increased by an average of 19,600, or 1.5 percent, annually, mostly because of
Population and Households 12Oklahoma City, Oklahoma Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of May 1, 2022
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
an expanding economy during most of the period. Net in-migration averaged
11,950 people annually, accounting for 61 percent of growth. The economic
downturn in the HMA in 2016 contributed to population growth slowing from
2016 to 2017 to an increase of 8,575 people, or 0.6 percent. During the
period, net in-migration totaled 1,975 people, accounting for only 23 percent
of the population growth. Net natural increase slowed also, to 6,600 people,
compared with an average
of 7,650 people annually during the previous
6 years. An increase in elderly residents, those ages 65 and older, contributed
to the slower net natural increase. Job growth from 2017 through 2019
contributed to the population increasing from 2017 to 2020 by an average
of 15,150, or 1.1 percent, annually.
Net in-migration increased to an average of
9,550 people annually, accounting for 63 percent of population growth during
the period. Net natural increase slowed further during the period, averaging
5,600 people annually, partly because of an increased portion of elderly
residents. From 2020 to 2021, the population increased by an average of
12,750, or 0.9 percent, annually. Net in-migration remained strong, averaging
10,700 people annually and accounting for 84 percent of population growth.
Net natural increase slowed to an average of 2,075 people annually, mostly
because of a decrease in the number of births and an elevated number of
deaths stemming from the effects of COVID-19. The recovering local economy
and relatively low unemployment
rates in the HMA contributed to net in-
migration during the period. Since 2021, strong job growth and relatively low
unemployment rates have contributed to the population increasing by an
average of 17,600, or 1.2 percent, annually. During the period, net in-migration
averaged an estimated 13,900 people annually and accounted for 79 percent
of population growth. Net natural increase averaged an estimated 3,700
people annually, a faster pace compared with the previous period.
Population by Geography
Oklahoma County is the most populous county in the HMA, with a population
of 798,600 as of July 1, 2021, accounting for 55 percent of the population of
the HMA (Census Bureau population estimates as of July 1). Oklahoma County,
where the greatest portion of jobs in the HMA are located, also accounted
for the greatest increase in the number of people from 2010 to 2021, up by
an average of 7,100, or 0.9 percent, annually (U.S. Census Bureau decennial
census counts and population estimates as of July 1). Cleveland and Canadian
Counties are the second and third most populous counties, with populations
in 2021 of 297,600 and 161,700, or 21 and 11 percent of the HMA population,
respectively. Percentagewise, the population of Canadian County grew at the
fastest pace and had the second greatest increase in the number of people
from 2010 to 2021, averaging 2.5 percent, or 4,100, annually, with growth
primarily in residential communities in areas barely west of the Oklahoma
County line. The remaining four counties, which mostly consist of suburban
and rural areas, account for a combined 13 percent of the HMA population.
Straddling three counties in the HMA, the city of Oklahoma City, with a
population of 687,700 in 2021, is the most populous city in both the HMA and
the state. Approximately 77 percent of the population of Oklahoma City reside
in Oklahoma County, with the remainder in Canadian County to the west and
in Cleveland County to the south. With 128,100 residents, the city of Norman
in Cleveland County is the second most populous city in the HMA and third
most populous in the state, behind the cities of Oklahoma City and Tulsa. The
city of Edmond, north of Oklahoma City in Oklahoma County, is the third most
populous city in the HMA, with an estimated 95,350 residents.
Migration Trends
Migration trends changed significantly among several counties in the HMA in
2021 compared with trends during the previous decade, mostly in response
to the COVID-19 pandemic. From 2010 to 2020, Canadian County accounted
for the greatest net in-migration, with an average of 3,125 residents annually,
or 30 percent of the HMA total net in-migration. Cleveland and Oklahoma
Counties accounted for 29 and 28 percent of the HMA net in-migration, with
respective averages of 2,975 and 2,825 residents annually, while net in-
migration among the remaining four counties averaged a combined 1,375,
or 13 percent of the overall net in-migration in the HMA, each year. From
Population and Households 13Oklahoma City, Oklahoma Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of May 1, 2022
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
2020 to 2021, Canadian County continued to
have the greatest net in-migration in the HMA,
with an average of 5,625 residents annually, or
53 percent of the HMA total net in-migration.
This level represented an 80-percent increase
in net in-migration in the county, compared with
the average annual net in-migration during the
previous decade. Net in-migration in Grady,
Lincoln, Logan, and McClain Counties totaled a
combined average of 3,700 residents annually
from 2020 to 2021, accounting for 35 percent of
the HMA total net in-migration and representing a
170-percent increase in net in-migration compared
with the previous decade. Net in-migration in
Cleveland County, the second most populous
county in the HMA, totaled 1,550 residents,
a decrease of 48 percent compared with the
previous decade, and net out-migration occurred
in Oklahoma County. The recent increase in net
in-migration to the five least populous counties
was mostly due to an increased propensity to
reside outside of the urban core areas following
the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Increased
opportunities for employees to telework from
home also allowed many residents to reside in
areas outside of the major employment centers in
the HMA, which are located mostly in Cleveland
and Oklahoma Counties.
Population by Age Cohort
Though the population among all age cohorts
has increased in the HMA since 2010, the
age cohort of 65 and older has grown at a
strong pace compared with the younger age cohorts, reflecting national trends. From 2010 to 2021, the
population of residents in the HMA ages 65 and older increased an average of 3.2 percent annually, to
210,800, mostly the result of residents aging in place (U.S. Census Bureau decennial census counts and
population estimates as of July 1). Nationally, the age cohort of 65 years and older increased an average
of 3.0 percent annually from 2010 to 2021, by comparison. The number of residents in the HMA ages 25
to 44 increased an average of 1.5 percent annually, to 404,100, partly resulting from residents moving to
the area for work. Those ages 18 and younger increased an average of 1.0 percent annually, to 349,800,
and the age cohorts ages 18 to 24 and ages 45 to 64 each increased an average of 0.5 percent annually,
to 143,600 and 333,300, respectively. The rate of population growth among residents in the HMA ages
65 and older resulted in the cohort accounting for a greater proportion of the total population in 2021,
increasing to 14.6 percent, compared with 11.8 percent in 2010 (Figure 6). By comparison, the population
of residents 65 years and older accounted for 16.8 percent of the population nationally in 2021, compared
with 13.0 percent in 2010. Among the younger age cohorts in the HMA, those ages 25 to 44 represented
the only other age cohort to have a greater portion of the total population in 2021, increasing to 28.0
percent compared with 27.3 percent in 2010. Residents ages 25 to 44 also represented the largest age
cohort in the HMA both in 2010 and in 2021.
2 010 2021
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Under 18 Years 18 to 24 Years 25 to 44 Years 45 to 64 Years 65 Years and Over
Figure 6. Population by Age Range in the Oklahoma City HMA
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Population and Households 14Oklahoma City, Oklahoma Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of May 1, 2022
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
Household Growth Trends
Household growth trends in the HMA since 2000 have generally followed
population trends. The number of households in the HMA is currently an
estimated 565,900, representing an average annual increase of 6,300
households, or 1.2 percent, since 2010, a slightly slower pace compared with
population growth during the same period. By comparison, the number of
households increased an average of 1.3 percent annually during the 2000s,
also at a slightly slower pace compared with population growth, which
averaged 1.4 percent annually during the period. The slightly slower rate in
household growth since 2010 compared with the 2000s reflects a slower
population growth rate during the same period. An increase in doubling up
of households and a delay in new household formation in the late 2000s as
a result of the Great Recession contributed to the slower pace in household
growth compared with population growth. Similarly, the slightly slower pace
in household growth compared with population growth since 2010 was partly
because of a delay in new household formation for several months following
the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Households by Tenure
Since 2010, owner household growth has accounted for 53 percent of total
household growth, compared with 63 percent during the 2000s. Tightened
mortgage lending standards and an increased propensity to rent contributed
to the decreased portion of new owner households since 2010, particularly
during the early to mid-2010s. Job losses during 2010 also contributed to
changes in the portion of new owner household formation since 2010. The
current homeownership rate is an estimated 63.3 percent, down from 64.9
and 65.2 percent in 2010 and 2000, respectively (Figure 7).
Homeownership rates among the HMA counties are an estimated 58.9 percent
in Oklahoma County, 63.7 percent in Cleveland County, and a range of 75.4 to
82.9 percent in the remaining five counties. Renter households in Oklahoma
County account for an estimated 62 percent of renter households in the HMA,
and Cleveland County accounts for approximately 20 percent of all renter
69.0
67.5
66.0
64.5
63.0
61.5
60.0
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
2000 2010 Current
Homeownership Rate (%)
Households
RenterOwner Homeownership Rate
65.2
64.9
63.3
Figure 7. Households by Tenure and Homeownership Rate
in the Oklahoma City HMA
Note: The current date is May 1, 2022.
Sources: 2000 and 2010—2000 Census and 2010 Census; current—estimates by the analyst
households. The remaining five counties account for a combined 18 percent
of renter households in the HMA.
Military and Student Households
Tinker AFB and the 16 universities in the HMA have a notable impact on the
local housing market. Military and student households currently total an
estimated 23,650 households, accounting for 4 percent of all households
in the HMA overall and 1 and 10 percent of owner and renter households,
respectively. Tinker AFB provides on-base housing for unmarried military
personnel in 14 dormitories consisting of a combined 950 beds and has
approximately 650 privatized housing units for married military personnel
and their families. The remaining military personnel and family members,
Population and Households 15Oklahoma City, Oklahoma Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of May 1, 2022
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
or approximately 3,850 households, of which an estimated 2,300 are renter
households, reside off-base in the surrounding housing market, mostly in
Oklahoma County. Combined, universities in the HMA provide on-campus
housing for approximately 14,000 students, or 19 percent of the 73,400
students enrolled as of the fall 2021 semester. The remaining students make
up an estimated 19,800 households, of which an estimated 18,600 are renter
households; those students reside in the local housing market, primarily in
Cleveland and Oklahoma Counties.
Forecast
During the forecast period, the population of the HMA is expected to increase
by an average of 17,650, or 1.2 percent, annually. Net in-migration is expected to
increase during the second and third years as the economy expands at a slightly
faster pace compared with the first year. The number of households in the HMA
is expected to increase by an average of 7,000, or 1.2 percent, annually during
the forecast period, a similar pace compared with population growth.
Home Sales Market 16Oklahoma City, Oklahoma Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of May 1, 2022
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
Home Sales Market
Market Conditions: Tight
Increases in home sales during most years
since 2010 and a significant decrease
in the inventory of homes for sale have
contributed to tighter sales market
conditions in the Oklahoma City HMA
compared with 2010.
Current Conditions
The home sales market in the HMA is currently
tight, with an estimated vacancy rate of 1.4 percent
(Table 5), down from 2.2 percent in April 2010, when
conditions were soft. The home sales vacancy rate
had decreased before the onset of the pandemic,
partly because of increased home sales demand
stemming from net in-migration each year and job
growth during most years of the 2010s. During the
past 2 years, home sales market conditions have
tightened further partly because of a significant
decline in the number of homes available for sale.
During April 2022, the number of available homes
for sale represented a 1.6-month supply, down
from 1.8 months a year earlier and from 3.1 months
in April 2020 (Zillow Group). By comparison, the
supply of homes available for sale was 6.7 months
in April 2010. Tighter home sales market conditions
during the past 2 years have also been due to
increased home sales demand stemming partly
from low mortgage interest rates during most of
the period. Though the average interest rate for a
30-year fixed-rate mortgage reached 5.0 percent during April 2022, the average rate was 3.0 and 3.1 percent
during 2021 and 2020, representing the lowest and second lowest average rates for any year during the
past 50 years, respectively (Freddie Mac). Increased investment purchases recently have also contributed
to tighter home sales market conditions in the HMA. During the first quarter of 2022, investment purchases
accounted for 24.7 percent of home sales, up from 21.9 percent a year earlier and from 16.6 percent during
2010 (John Burns Real Estate Consulting).
Current Home Sales and Prices
During the 12 months ending April 2022, new and existing home sales totaled 37,200 homes in the
Oklahoma City HMA (CoreLogic, Inc.). That number was unchanged compared with a year earlier, when
home sales increased 5 percent from the previous year and were at that time at the highest level of
home sales for any 12-month period since February 2007—prior to the worst of the housing market crisis.
The average home sales price during the 12 months ending April 2022 was $234,200, representing an
increase of $32,500, or 16 percent, the greatest increase in the average home price since at least 2001.
By comparison, the average home price increased 11 percent during the 12 months ending April 2021.
The decrease in inventory of homes available for sale placed upward pressure on home prices, which
contributed to strong increases in the average home price during the past 2 years. New home sales
decreased 5 percent to 5,275 during the 12 months ending April 2022, compared with a 20-percent
Home Sales
Quick Facts
Oklahoma City HMA
Nation
Vacancy Rate
1.4% NA
Months of Inventory
1.6 1.6
Total Home Sales
37,200 7,290,000
1-Year Change
0% 1%
New Home Sales Price
$316,500 $447,700
1-Year Change
12% 13%
Existing Home Sales Price
$220,500 $387,900
1-Year Change
18% 16%
Mortgage Delinquency Rate
2.0% 1.5%
NA = data not available.
Notes: The vacancy rate is as of the current date; home sales and prices are for the 12 months ending April 2022; and months of inventory and
mortgage delinquency data are as of April 2022. The current date is May 1, 2022.
Sources: Vacancy rate—estimate by the analyst; national months of inventory—CoreLogic, Inc.; HMA months of inventory—Zillow Group; HMA
and national home sales and prices—CoreLogic, Inc.
Table 5. Home Sales Quick Facts in the Oklahoma City HMA
Home Sales Market 17Oklahoma City, Oklahoma Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of May 1, 2022
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
increase a year earlier. The average price for a
new home increased 12 percent, to $316,500,
compared with a 4-percent increase a year
earlier. Existing home sales increased 1 percent
to 31,900 homes, a slightly slower pace
compared with a gain of 2 percent a year earlier.
The average existing home price increased
18 percent, to $220,500, compared with an
11-percent increase a year earlier. Distressed
home sales accounted for only 1.3 percent of
existing home sales during the 12 months ending
April 2022, down from 2.0 percent a year earlier
and down from a peak level of 12.5 percent
during the 12 months ending June 2011.
Housing Affordability: Sales
Despite having tight home sales market conditions
and rising home prices, the Oklahoma City HMA
remains among the most affordable areas to buy
a home in the nation. The National Association
of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing
Opportunity Index for the Oklahoma City HMA,
which represents the share of homes sold that
would have been affordable to a family earning
the local median income, was 77.5 during the first
quarter of 2022, down slightly from 80.6 during
the first quarter of 2021 and lower than a peak
level of 83.3 during the first quarter of 2012. The
HMA was the 74th most affordable metropolitan
area in the nation during the first quarter of 2022
among the 240 areas ranked during the period.
Home Sales Trends
New and existing home sales in the HMA increased an average of 8 percent annually from 2001 through 2005
to reach 39,150 homes sold (Figure 8). Relaxed mortgage lending standards and relatively affordable home
prices, combined with job growth during most years during that period, contributed to net in-migration and
rising demand for homes for sale. From 2006 through 2011, however, home sales declined by an average of
2,600, or 8 percent, annually, to 23,600 homes sold, mostly because of tighter mortgage lending standards,
the national housing crisis, and the economic downturn in the HMA. New and existing home sales increased
significantly during 2012 and 2013 because of strong job and population growth. During this period, home
sales increased by an average of 3,650, or 14 percent, annually, to 30,900 homes sold. From 2014 through
2016, home sales activity moderated, increasing an average of 2 percent annually, before declining 6 percent
during 2017 to 30,650 homes. Contributing to slowing home sales from 2014 through 2016 and the decline
during 2017 were a local economic downturn that occurred during 2016 and a relatively low level of net in-
migration from 2016 to 2017. Job growth and stronger net in-migration contributed to home sales increasing
during 2018 and 2019 by an average of 2,425, or 8 percent, annually, to 35,500.
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Sales Totals
Apr-01
Apr-02
Apr-03
Apr-04
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Apr-20
Apr-21
Apr-22
Existing Home Sales New Home Sales
Figure 8. 12-Month Sales Totals by Type in the Oklahoma City HMA
Source: CoreLogic, Inc.
Home Sales Market 18Oklahoma City, Oklahoma Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of May 1, 2022
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
Home Sales Price Trends
New and existing home sales prices increased
nearly every year from 2001 through 2019
(Figure 9), albeit moderately compared with
home price growth during the past 2 years. The
average home price increased an average of
6 percent annually from 2001 through 2008 to
$137,000. During 2009, the average home price
declined 4 percent, to $131,600, partly because
of decreased home sales demand stemming from
the local economic downturn. From 2010 through
2019, the average price for a home increased
each year, averaging 3 percent annually, to
$180,900. Job growth during most years and net
in-migration each year of the period contributed
to the increase.
New Home Sales Trends
by Geography
New home sales trends have changed among
counties in the HMA since 2020 compared with
the previous 2 decades, mirroring migration
trends during the COVID-19 pandemic. From 2000
through 2019, Oklahoma County accounted for
47 percent of new home sales, whereas
Cleveland and Canadian Counties accounted
for 26 and 19 percent of all new home sales,
respectively. New home sales in the remaining
four counties accounted for a combined 8 percent
of all new home sales during this period. Since
2020, the greatest portion of new homes sold in
the HMA has occurred in Canadian County, with
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
Apr-01
Apr-02
Apr-03
Apr-04
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Apr-20
Apr-21
Apr-22
Average Sales Price ($)
Existing Home SalesNew Home Sales
Figure 9. 12-Month Average Sales Price by Type of Sale in the Oklahoma City HMA
Source: CoreLogic, Inc.
39 percent, more than twice the portion compared with the previous 2 decades. Oklahoma County has
had the second greatest portion of new home sales in the HMA, with 36 percent, a significant decrease
in the portion compared with 2000 through 2019. The portion of new home sales in Cleveland County
has decreased to only 9 percent, or nearly one-third the portion compared with the previous 2 decades,
whereas the combined portion of new home sales in the remaining four counties has doubled compared
with 2000 through 2019, to 16 percent. Contributing to the increase of new home sales in the five least
populous counties since 2020 has been an increased suburban appeal among homebuyers, partly
because of increased opportunities for many residents to work remotely and because of an increased
preference to reside outside of the urban core areas since the onset of COVID-19.
Delinquent Mortgages and REO Properties
In April 2022, 2.0 percent of home loans in the Oklahoma City HMA were seriously delinquent (90 or
more days delinquent or in foreclosure) or had transitioned into REO status; that percentage is down
from 4.1 percent a year earlier and below the 5.1-percent peak rate in January 2010 (CoreLogic, Inc.).
The percentage of seriously delinquent mortgages and REO properties increased significantly during
the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic as weakened economic conditions made it more difficult
Home Sales Market 19Oklahoma City, Oklahoma Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of May 1, 2022
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
for many homeowners to stay current on their
mortgage payments and a large number of home
mortgages were placed in forbearance. In April
2021, home loans that were 90 or more days
delinquent had increased 233 percent compared
with a year earlier, but the numbers of home
loans that were in foreclosure and in REO status
were down 39 and 64 percent, respectively,
partly because of a national moratorium on
foreclosures for federally backed mortgages that
was in place until September 2021. Improved
local economic conditions contributed to
the decrease in the percentage of seriously
delinquent mortgages and REO properties in
April 2022 compared with a year earlier.
Sales Construction Trends
Home sales construction activity, as measured
by the number of building permits issued for
sales housing, which includes single-family
homes, townhomes, and condominiums, was
strong in the HMA from 2001 through 2005,
when homebuilding increased an average of
15 percent annually, peaking at 8,150 homes
permitted in 2005 (Figure 10). Strong home sales
demand, stemming from relaxed mortgage lending
standards and relatively affordable home prices,
combined with job and population growth, were
the primary reasons for increased homebuilding.
Home construction activity declined an average
of 21 percent annually from 2006 through 2009
because of tightening lending standards and,
by 2009, a contracting local economy. During
2010 and 2011, home construction activity remained relatively stable, decreasing an average of 1 percent
annually to approximately 3,100 homes permitted. Increased home sales demand stemming from job growth
contributed to homebuilding increasing an average of 44 percent annually during 2012 and 2013 to 6,375
homes permitted. Also contributing to the increase in homebuilding during the period were permits issued
to replace 1,600 homes destroyed during a tornado outbreak that occurred in late May 2013. From 2014
through 2016, homebuilding activity slowed slightly, declining an average of 8 percent annually to 5,025
homes permitted, partly because fewer replacement homes were needed. The local economic downturn
during 2016 also contributed to decreased homebuilding during the period. Home construction activity
increased 2 percent during 2017 before increasing an average of 8 percent annually during 2018 and
2019 to 5,950 homes permitted. Relatively strong home sales demand stemming from an expanding local
economy and increased net in-migration contributed to the increase in homebuilding during 2018 and 2019.
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
12ME Apr 2021
12ME Apr 2022
Single-Family Homes/Townhomes
Single-Family Homes/Townhomes 12ME
Condominiums
Condominiums 12ME
Figure 10. Annual Sales Permitting Activity in the Oklahoma City HMA
12ME = 12 months ending.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey; 2000–20—final data and estimates by the analyst; past 24 months of data—preliminary
data and estimates by the analyst
Home Sales Market 20Oklahoma City, Oklahoma Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of May 1, 2022
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
Current Sales Construction Activity
Strong home sales demand in the HMA has contributed to an increase in home
construction activity during the past 2 years. During the 12 months ending
April 2022, homebuilding increased 12 percent to 8,000 homes permitted,
compared with a 16-percent increase a year earlier (preliminary data). There
are currently an estimated 5,250 homes under construction in the HMA.
Construction is currently underway at the Nichols Creek residential community
near the city of Yukon in Canadian County. Three- and four-bedroom single-
family homes, ranging in size from 1,550 to 1,950 square feet, are offered at
the development, with prices starting in the low $300,000s. Since opening
in 2019, approximately 220 new homes have sold at Nichols Creek. An
additional 15 homes are currently under construction, and about 80 home
sites remain available for construction. In the city of Edmond, construction
is underway at the Cherry Hill residential community, which will include 85
single-family homes at build-out. Since opening in 2018, 70 new three-, four-,
and five-bedroom single-family homes have sold at the community. Fifteen
homes, ranging in size from 1,700 to 2,500 square feet, are currently under
construction and are offered at prices ranging from $351,000 to $488,000.
Forecast
Demand is expected for 20,150 new homes in the HMA during the next 3 years
(Table 6). New home sales demand is expected to increase slightly each year
of the forecast period, partly because of increasing employment and net in-
migration during the second and third years. The 5,250 homes currently under
construction will meet part of the demand during the first year.
Table 6. Demand for New Sales Units in the Oklahoma City HMA
During the Forecast Period
Sales Units
Demand 20,150 Units
Under Construction 5,250 Units
Note: The forecast period is from May 1, 2022, to May 1, 2025.
Source: Estimates by the analyst
Rental Market 21Oklahoma City, Oklahoma Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of May 1, 2022
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
Rental Market
Market Conditions: Balanced
Job growth during most years and net
in-migration every year since 2010 have
contributed to currently balanced rental
market conditions compared with soft
conditions in 2010.
Current Conditions
The rental housing market in the Oklahoma City
HMA is balanced, with a current overall rental
vacancy rate estimated at 8.5 percent (Table 7).
Rental market conditions have improved since
April 2010, when the rental vacancy rate was
10.4 percent and conditions were soft. The
apartment rental market is also currently
balanced, having improved since 2010 when
conditions were soft. The average apartment
vacancy rate during the first quarter of 2022
was 4.8 percent, down from 6.0 percent during
both the first quarters of 2020 and 2021 and
well below the 10.1-percent rate during the
first quarter of 2010 (Moody’s Analytics REIS;
Figure 11). In 2019, occupied single-family rental
homes in the HMA accounted for an estimated
47.6 percent of the total number of occupied
rental units (2019 American Community Survey
[ACS] 1-year data). Single-family rental home
vacancy rates are often higher than apartment
vacancy rates, partly because amenities and
services—such as clubhouses, swimming pools,
and lawn service—are typically offered at
Rental Market
Quick Facts
2010 (%) Current (%)
Rental Vacancy Rate 10.4 8.5
2010 (%) 2019 (%)
Occupied Rental Units by Structure
Single-Family Attached & Detached 46.7 47.6
Multifamily (2–4 Units) 12.7 11.2
Multifamily (5+ Units) 36.2 36.6
Other (Including Mobile Homes) 4.4 4.6
Notes: The current date is May 1, 2022. Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding.
Sources: 2010 vacancy rate—2010 Census; current vacancy rate—estimate by the analyst; occupied rental units by structure—2010 and 2019
American Community Survey, 1-year data
Table 7. Rental Market Quick Facts in the Oklahoma City HMA
Q1 = first quarter.
Source: Moody’s Analytics REIS
Average Monthly Rent Vacancy Rate
12.0
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
850
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
Q1 2000
Q1 2001
Q1 2002
Q1 2003
Q1 2004
Q1 2005
Q1 2006
Q1 2007
Q1 2008
Q1 2009
Q1 2010
Q1 2011
Q1 2012
Q1 2013
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
Q1 2016
Q1 2017
Q1 2018
Q1 2019
Q1 2020
Q1 2021
Q1 2022
Vacancy Rate (%)
Average Monthly Rent ($)
Figure 11. Apartment Rents and Vacancy Rates in the Oklahoma City HMA
apartments but not at single-family rental homes. Also contributing to a higher single-family rental
vacancy rate in the HMA is the higher portion of relatively old single-family rental homes. An estimated
34 percent of occupied single-family renter homes in the HMA were built before 1960, compared with only
6 percent of renter-occupied apartments with five or more units per structure. The average apartment rent
Rental Market 22Oklahoma City, Oklahoma Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of May 1, 2022
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
during the first quarter of 2022 increased 11 percent from a year earlier to
$800, compared with no change in the average rent a year earlier (Moody’s
Analytics REIS). The current level of rent growth in the HMA represents the
fastest pace since 1982. Contributing to the decrease in the current average
apartment vacancy rate and strong rent growth during the past year was a
recovering local economy and strong net in-migration. A limited inventory
of homes for sale and strong home price growth have also contributed to
the decline in the average apartment vacancy rate and strong apartment
rent growth during the past year. Despite the recent surge in apartment
rent growth, the average apartment rent in the HMA during the first quarter
of 2022 was the second lowest average apartment rent among 82 primary
market areas covered by Moody’s Analytics REIS, a ranking held by the
HMA during the past 2 decades.
Current Apartment Conditions by Class
and Geography
The average vacancy rate for class A apartments during the first quarter of 2022
decreased in the HMA to 6.0 percent from 6.4 percent a year earlier, and the
average rent was $974, up 11 percent from a year earlier. The average vacancy
rate for class B/C apartments was 4.2 percent, down from 5.8 percent a year
earlier, and the average rent for class B/C units increased 10 percent to $694.
The average apartment vacancy rates in the HMA ranged from 3.4 percent
in the Moody’s Analytics REIS-defined Edmond market area to 5.9 percent in
the East Central Oklahoma City market area. Average apartment rents ranged
from $637 in the West Central Oklahoma City market area to $992 in the East
Central Oklahoma City market area. In downtown Oklahoma City, the average
apartment vacancy rate was 3.6 percent, and the average apartment rent was
$1,416. The average apartment vacancy rates during the first quarter of 2022
at properties within 2 miles of OU, the largest university in the HMA, and the
University of Central Oklahoma (UCO), which is located in the city of Edmond
and is the second largest university, were 3.4 and 5.6 percent, respectively. The
average apartment rents near OU and UCO were $888 and $766, up 8 and 7
percent from a year earlier, respectively. The average apartment vacancy rate
at properties within 2 miles of Tinker AFB was 8.8 percent, and the average
rent for an apartment in that area increased 7 percent to $850.
Apartment Vacancy Trends
Apartment market conditions in the HMA were soft during most of the
2000s. The average apartment vacancy rate was 6.0 percent during each
of the first quarters of 2000 and 2001, the lowest levels during the decade.
Job declines in the HMA during 2002 and 2003 contributed to an increase
in the average apartment vacancy rate to 10.1 percent by the first quarter
of 2003. The average apartment vacancy rate decreased to 9.3 percent
by the first quarter of 2004 before increasing slightly to 9.4 percent by the
first quarter of 2005. Overbuilding of apartments, combined with strong
competition from the home sales market, contributed to the continued
high average apartment vacancy rates in the first quarters of 2004 and
2005. By the first quarter of 2006, the average apartment vacancy rate had
decreased slightly to 8.9 percent. The average rate remained at 8.9 percent
as of the first quarter of 2007, before decreasing to 8.2 percent by the first
quarter 2008. A decrease in rental construction activity during 2006 and
2007, combined with diminished competition from the home sales market,
contributed to the general decline in the average apartment vacancy rate
from the first quarter of 2006 through the first quarter of 2008. Between the
first quarter of 2009 and the first quarter of 2010, the average apartment
vacancy rate increased to reach 10.1 percent, mostly because of the economic
downturn that began in 2009. From the first quarter of 2011 through the first
quarter of 2014, the average apartment vacancy rate declined to 5.7 percent.
Contributing to the decrease during the period was a growing local economy
beginning in 2011, which drew residents to the HMA and subsequently
increased demand. An increased preference to rent among residents during
the period also contributed to the decrease in the average apartment
vacancy rate. From the first quarter of 2015 through the first quarter of 2017,
the apartment vacancy rate increased to 7.4 percent. The local economic
downturn that occurred during 2016 contributed to softening apartment
market conditions. Relatively strong job growth during 2018 and 2019
Rental Market 23Oklahoma City, Oklahoma Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of May 1, 2022
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
contributed to the average apartment vacancy
rate declining between the first quarter of 2018
and the first quarter of 2019 to reach 6.6 percent.
Apartment Rent Growth Trends
Changes in the average apartment rent in the
HMA were relatively stable from the first quarter
of 2001 through the first quarter of 2019, mostly
regardless of changes in either apartment supply
or demand. During the period, the average
apartment rent increased an average of 3 percent
annually to $702. Year-over-year changes in the
average rent during the period ranged from no
change from the first quarter of 2009 through the
first quarter of 2010 to a 5-percent increase from
the first quarter of 2007 through the first quarter
of 2008. The local economic downturn during
2009 and 2010 contributed to the flat rent growth
from the first quarter of 2009 through the first
quarter of 2010. The increased rent growth from
the first quarter of 2007 through the first quarter
of 2008 was partly because of slightly improved
apartment market conditions, reflected by a
decrease in the average apartment vacancy rate,
and because an estimated 780 class A apartment
units, which typically command relatively higher
rents, were completed during the same period.
Rental Construction
Activity Trends
Rental construction activity in the Oklahoma City
HMA, as measured by the number of rental units
permitted, has fluctuated since 2000. During 2000 and 2001, rental construction activity averaged 1,275
units annually before slowing to 540 units during 2002 (Figure 12). Rental construction activity averaged
1,625 units annually from 2003 through 2005, despite relatively high average apartment vacancy rates
during the period. During 2006 and 2007, rental construction activity slowed to an average of 690 units
annually, reflecting overbuilding that had occurred during the previous period. During 2008 and 2009,
rental construction activity averaged 1,625 units annually as housing construction shifted to rental product
due to weakening sales market conditions. About one-third of the rental construction activity during the
period occurred in the cities of Norman and Edmond, near OU and UCO, respectively. The local economic
downturn and an increase in the average apartment vacancy rate contributed to rental construction activity
slowing to 620 units during 2010. From 2011 through 2016, rental construction activity fluctuated but
increased overall, averaging 2,450 units built annually, as builders responded to declines in the average
apartment vacancy rate during the earlier years of the period. The local economic downturn during
2016 and an increase in the average apartment vacancy rate by the first quarter of 2017 contributed to a
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
12ME Apr 2021
12ME Apr 2022
Rental Units Rental Units 12ME
Figure 12. Annual Rental Permitting Activity in the Oklahoma City HMA
12ME = 12 months ending.
Note: Includes apartments and units intended for rental occupancy.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey; 2000–20—final data and estimates by the analyst; past 24 months of data—preliminary
data and estimates by the analyst
Rental Market 24Oklahoma City, Oklahoma Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of May 1, 2022
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
decrease in rental construction activity during 2017, when only 900 units were
permitted.
During 2018 and 2019, rental construction activity
increased an
average of 63 percent annually, to reach 2,400 units, as builders responded
to job growth and a decrease in the average apartment vacancy rate during
the period.
New Rental Construction Activity
During the 12 months ending April 2022, rental construction activity in the
HMA increased 20 percent to an estimated 1,950 units, compared with a
24-percent decrease a year earlier (preliminary data, with adjustments by
the analyst). A decline in the average apartment vacancy rate and strong
rent growth contributed to the increase in rental construction activity during
the past year. There are currently an estimated 2,175 rental units under
construction and 270 units in final planning. Among the units underway
are those at BroadVue Apartments, an apartment community in the city
of Oklahoma City, approximately 7 miles north of downtown that began
construction in February 2022. The development is expected to include
323 market-rate units, with rents expected to be $1,000 for 53 studio units,
$1,260 to $1,425 for 162 one-bedroom units, $1,675 for 104 two-bedroom
units, and $2,175 for 4 three-bedroom units. The historic 32-story former
First National Bank building, in downtown Oklahoma City, was recently
converted into the $275 million First National Center, which includes the
193-unit The First Residences at First National apartments. First National
Center, which opened in April 2022, also includes a 146-room Autograph
Collection hotel and numerous restaurants and bars. Rents at The First
Residences at First National for studio, one-, and two-bedroom units start at
$1,825, $2,070, and $3,910, respectively; a single three-bedroom penthouse
unit, totaling nearly 3,500 square feet, is offered for $11,590 per month.
Forecast
During the forecast period, demand is estimated for 5,100 new rental units in
the HMA (Table 8). Demand is expected to increase slightly in the second and
third years of the forecast period because of greater net in-migration. The
2,175 units currently under construction and an additional 270 units in final
planning stages are expected to satisfy a portion of demand.
Note: The forecast period is May 1, 2022, to May 1, 2025.
Source: Estimates by the analyst
Rental Units
Demand 5,100 Units
Under Construction 2,175 Units
Table 8. Demand for New Rental Units in the Oklahoma City HMA
During the Forecast Period
Terminology Definitions and Notes 25Oklahoma City, Oklahoma Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of May 1, 2022
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
Terminology Definitions and Notes
A. Definitions
Building Permits
Building permits do not necessarily reflect all residential building activity that occurs in an HMA. Some units are constructed or created without a
building permit or are issued a different type of building permit. For example, some units classified as commercial structures are not reflected in the
residential building permits. As a result, the analyst, through diligent fieldwork, makes an estimate of this additional construction activity. Some of
these estimates are included in the discussions of single-family and multifamily building permits.
Demand
The demand estimates in the analysis are not a forecast of building activity. They are the estimates of the total housing production needed to achieve
a balanced market at the end of the 3-year forecast period given conditions on the as-of date of the analysis, growth, losses, and excess vacancies.
The estimates do not account for units currently under construction or units in the development pipeline.
Distressed Sales Short sales and real estate owned (REO) sales.
Existing Home
Sales
Include resales, short sales, and REO sales, where resales are home closings that have no ties to either new home closings (builders) or foreclosures
and were previously constructed and sold to an unaffiliated third party.
Forecast Period 5/1/2022–5/1/2025—Estimates by the analyst.
Home Sales/
Home Sales
Prices
Includes single-family, townhome, and condominium sales.
Net Natural
Increase
Resident births minus resident deaths.
Terminology Definitions and Notes 26Oklahoma City, Oklahoma Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of May 1, 2022
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
Rental Market/
Rental Vacancy
Rate
Includes apartments and other rental units such as single-family, multifamily, and mobile homes.
Seriously
Delinquent
Mortgages
Mortgages 90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure.
B. Notes on Geography
1.
The metropolitan statistical area definition noted in this report is based on the delineations established by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB)
in the OMB Bulletin dated April 10, 2018.
2. Urbanized areas are defined using the U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Census Urban and Rural Classification and the Urban Area Criteria.
C. Additional Notes
1.
The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index represents the share of homes sold in the HMA that would have been affordable to a family earning
the local median income, based on standard mortgage underwriting criteria.
2.
This analysis has been prepared for the assistance and guidance of HUD in its operations. The factual information, findings, and conclusions may
also be useful to builders, mortgagees, and others concerned with local housing market conditions and trends. The analysis does not purport to
make determinations regarding the acceptability of any mortgage insurance proposals that may be under consideration by the Department.
3.
The factual framework for this analysis follows the guidelines and methods developed by the Economic and Market Analysis Division within HUD.
The analysis and findings are as thorough and current as possible based on information available on the as-of date from local and national sources.
As such, findings or conclusions may be modified by subsequent developments. HUD expresses its appreciation to those industry sources and state
and local government officials who provided data and information on local economic and housing market conditions.
Terminology Definitions and Notes 27Oklahoma City, Oklahoma Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of May 1, 2022
Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
Contact Information
Randall Goodnight, Economist
Oklahoma City HUD Field Office
405-609-8525
D. Photo/Map Credits
Cover Photo Adobe Stock
