Earned Value Management System (EVMS)
Program Analysis Pamphlet (PAP)
DCMA-EA PAM 200.1
October 2012
THE DCMA ENGINEERING AND ANALYSIS EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR ISSUANCE AND MAINTENANCE OF THIS DOCUMENT
DCMA
EVMS PROGRAM ANALYSIS PAMPLET OCT 2012
i
DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE
Defense Contract Management Agency
PAMPHLET
Earned Value Management System (EVMS) Program Analysis Pamphlet (PAP)
Engineering and Analysis DCMA-EA PAM 200.1
OPR: DCMA-EAVP October 29, 2012
1. PURPOSE. This EVMS Program Analysis Pamphlet (EVMSPAP) will serve as a
primary
reference for EVMS Specialists to properly generate EVM metrics,
graphs
,
tables,
and
presentations supporting the creation of the Program Assessment Report (PAR). It outlines
EVM key components spanning
the
integrated business management systems and the
Integrated Master Schedule (IMS
)
.
2. APPLICABILITY. This Pamphlet applies to all DCMA
activitie
s
.
3.
RELEASABILITY – UNLIMITED
. This Pamphlet is approved for public release
.
4. EFFECTIVE DATE. This Pamphlet is effective
immediately.
Karron E.
Small
Executive
Director
Engineering and Analysis
Directorate
SMALL.KARR
ON.E.122962
5957
Digitally signed by
SMALL.KARRON.E.1229625957
DN: c=US, o=U.S. Government,
ou=DoD, ou=PKI, ou=DLA,
cn=SMALL.KARRON.E.122962595
7
Date: 2012.11.06 15:20:53 -05'00'
EVMS PROGRAM ANALYSIS PAMPLET OCT 2012
ii
TABLE OF CONTENTS
FOREWORD .............................................................................................................................................. 1
1.0 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................... 2
2.0 PROGRAM ASSESSMENT REPORT (PAR) EVM REQUIREMENTS ........................ 3
2.1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................... 3
2.2 INDEPENDENT ESTIMATE AT COMPLETION (IEAC) ................................................ 3
2.3 SUMMARY TABLE ................................................................................................................. 5
2.4 CONTRACT VARIANCE AND PERFORMANCE CHARTS ......................................... 8
2.5 VARIANCE ANALYSIS ......................................................................................................... 9
2.6 SCHEDULE ANALYSIS ....................................................................................................... 11
2.7 BASELINE REVISIONS ....................................................................................................... 11
2.8 EVM SYSTEM STATUS ....................................................................................................... 12
2.9 EV ASSESSMENT POINT OF CONTACT (POC) ........................................................... 13
3.0 INTEGRATED DATA ANALYSIS PERFORMANCE INDICATORS ........................ 14
3.1 PERFORMANCE DATA ANALYSIS ................................................................................ 14
3.1.1 COST ..............................................................................................................................15
3.1.1.1 COST PERFORMANCE INDEX (CPI) ........................................................................15
3.1.1.2 COST PERFORMANCE INDEX TREND ....................................................................16
3.1.1.3 THE RATIO: “PERCENT COMPLETE” TO “PERCENT SPENT” ............................16
3.1.2 SCHEDULE ....................................................................................................................18
3.1.2.1 SCHEDULE PERFORMANCE INDEX (SPI) ..............................................................18
3.1.2.2 SCHEDULE PERFORMANCE INDEX (SPI) TREND ................................................19
3.1.2.3 CRITICAL PATH LENGTH INDEX (CPLI) ................................................................19
3.1.2.4 BASELINE EXECUTION INDEX (BEI) ......................................................................20
EVMS PROGRAM ANALYSIS PAMPLET OCT 2012
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3.1.3 ESTIMATE AT COMPLETION (EAC) ........................................................................22
3.1.3.1 “COST PERFORMANCE INDEX” – “TO COMPLETE PERFORMANCE
INDEX” ..........................................................................................................................22
3.1.3.2 THE RATIO: “BUDGET AT COMPLETION” TO “ESTIMATE AT
COMPLETION” .............................................................................................................23
3.1.3.3 THE RATIO: “% COMPLETE” TO “% MANAGEMENT RESERVE USED” ..........23
3.2 DATA INTEGRITY ASSESSMENT ................................................................................... 24
3.2.1 SYSTEM COMPLIANCE ..............................................................................................25
3.2.1.1 SYSTEM COMPLIANCE STATUS RATING .............................................................25
3.2.2 BASELINE QUALITY ..................................................................................................25
3.2.2.1 BASELINE INDICATOR ..............................................................................................25
3.2.2.2 BASELINE REVISIONS INDEX ..................................................................................26
3.2.2.3 CONTRACT MODIFICATIONS ..................................................................................27
4.0 14 POINT SCHEDULE METRICS FOR IMS (PROJECT/OPEN PLAN, ETC.)
ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................................... 28
4.1 LOGIC ....................................................................................................................................... 28
4.2 LEADS ...................................................................................................................................... 28
4.3 LAGS ......................................................................................................................................... 29
4.4 RELATIONSHIP TYPES ....................................................................................................... 29
4.5 HARD CONSTRAINTS ......................................................................................................... 30
4.6 HIGH FLOAT .......................................................................................................................... 30
4.7 NEGATIVE FLOAT ............................................................................................................... 30
4.8 HIGH DURATION ................................................................................................................. 31
4.9 INVALID DATES ................................................................................................................... 31
4.10 RESOURCES ........................................................................................................................... 31
4.11 MISSED TASKS ..................................................................................................................... 32
EVMS PROGRAM ANALYSIS PAMPLET OCT 2012
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4.12 CRITICAL PATH TEST ........................................................................................................ 32
4.13 CRITICAL PATH LENGTH INDEX (CPLI) ..................................................................... 32
4.14 BASELINE EXECUTION INDEX (BEI) ............................................................................ 32
5.0 DATA INTEGRITY INDICATORS .................................................................................... 33
5.1 BCWS
cum
> BAC ..................................................................................................................... 33
5.2 BCWP
cum
> BAC ..................................................................................................................... 33
5.3 ACWP
cum
WITH NO BAC ..................................................................................................... 34
5.4 ACWP
cur
WITH NO BAC ...................................................................................................... 34
5.5 NEGATIVE BAC .................................................................................................................... 34
5.6 ZERO BUDGET WPs ............................................................................................................. 34
5.7 LEVEL OF EFFORT WITH SCHEDULE VARIANCE ................................................... 35
5.8 BCWP WITH NO ACWP ...................................................................................................... 35
5.9 COMPLETED WORK WITH ETC ...................................................................................... 36
5.10 INCOMPLETE WORK WITHOUT ETC ............................................................................ 36
5.11 ACWP ON COMPLETED WORK ....................................................................................... 36
5.12 CPI-TCPI > 0.10 ...................................................................................................................... 37
5.13 CPI-TCPI < -0.10 ..................................................................................................................... 37
5.14 ACWP
cum
> EAC ...................................................................................................................... 37
5.15 NEGATIVE BCWS
cum
OR NEGATIVE BCWS
cur
............................................................. 37
5.16 NEGATIVE BCWP
cum
OR NEGATIVE BCWP
cur
............................................................ 38
5.17 EVM COST TOOL TO IMS WORK PACKAGE COMPARISON ................................ 38
6.0 ADDITIONAL RESOURCES........................................................................................40
7.0 APPENDIX: ACRONYM GLOSSARY .......................................................................42
EVMS PROGRAM ANALYSIS PAMPHLET OCT 2012
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FOREWORD
The Defense Contract Management Agency (DCMA) performs three types of Earned Value
Management System (EVMS) functions: Compliance Reviews, System Surveillance, and
Program Analysis. The Agency has developed a suite of instructions to define and standardize
these functions. In addition, the EVMS Specialist Certification Program (ESCP) standardizes
the training and experience requirements for DCMA EVMS Specialists. The Major Program
Support (MPS) instruction (http://guidebook.dcma.mil/56/index.cfm) provides a framework for
Contract Management Office (CMO) multifunctional Programs Support Teams (PST) and
requires a Program Assessment Report (PAR). This EVMS Program Analysis Pamphlet
(EVMSPAP) shall be used as a reference to generate EVM metrics,
graphs, tables, and
presentations.
EVMS PROGRAM ANALYSIS PAMPHLET OCT 2012
2
1.0 INTRODUCTION
The intent of the EVMSPAP is to outline the key components of EVM analysis. An EVMS is an
integrated business management system consisting of the following five areas: Organization;
Planning, Scheduling & Budgeting; Accounting; Analysis & Management Reports; and
Revisions & Data Maintenance. Scheduling is a critical EVMS function. Therefore, this
Pamphlet also contains information regarding Integrated Master Schedule (IMS) analysis.
The purpose of the EVMSPAP is to provide a standard for conducting analysis and to ensure all
EVMS Specialists have the information required to approach EVM and the IMS analysis
consistently. An integral part of successful program management is reliable and accurate
information. Program managers and their teams perform best when they are well informed. The
goal of EVM program analysis is to provide consistent and timely insight to program
status in
order to enable timely, effective management decision making.
On June 19, 2012, the Integrated Program Management Report (IPMR) was released and
effectively combined and updated the Contract Performance Report (CPR) and the Integrated
Master Schedule (IMS) Data Item Descriptions (DID). The IPMR contains data for measuring
cost and schedule performance on Department of Defense (DOD) acquisition contracts. It is
structured around seven formats that contain the content and relationships required for electronic
submissions. The IPMR is effective for all
new applicable contracts after July 1, 2012,
but the CPR and the IMS DIDs remain in
effect for preexisting contracts. Users of this
document should recognize this transition to
the IPMR when considering text references
to the CPR or IMS and application of the
practices, procedures, and methods in support
of EVM functions. While the IPMR updated
DID requirements, Table 1 compares the
CPR, IMS, and IPMR DID formats.
Table 1. Correlating the CPR DID and the IMS
DID with the IPMR DID
CPR DID & IMS DID
IPMR DID
CPR Format 1 IPMR Format 1
CPR Format 2 IPMR Format 2
CPR Format 3 IPMR Format 3
CPR Format 4 IPMR Format 4
CPR Format 5 IPMR Format 5
IMS IPMR Format 6
N/A IPMR Format 7
EVMS PROGRAM ANALYSIS PAMPHLET OCT 2012
3
2.0 PROGRAM ASSESSMENT REPORT (PAR) EVM REQUIREMENTS
The PAR is a product for DCMA customers containing functional input from all members of a
program support team (PST). One of those PST functions is EVMS. EVMS information is
contained in Section 4 and Annex A: Earned Value Report Template. The information requested
in Section 4 can be entirely derived from the Earned Value (EV) Report Template. If a program
has more than one contract, an EV Report will be generated for each contract and summarized
into a single Section 4 summary.
The following sections contain guidance for EVMS Specialists in the production of EV Reports
intended for Annex A of the PAR.
2.1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The executive summary is intended to provide a brief synopsis for management that may not
necessarily have the time to read the entire report. Try to avoid providing too many details.
Instead, focus on broad trends or major issues that require DCMA or otherwise governmental
PM attention. Major programmatic issues related to cost, schedule, or Estimated at Completion
(EAC) growth should be included. For example, an Over Target Baseline (OTB) or Nunn
McCurdy breach would be a significant issue to be addressed in the executive summary. A
summary of metrics such as the Cost Performance Index (CPI) and the Schedule Performance
Index (SPI), and the top cost and schedule drivers provides a useful assessment of overall
contractor performance. Lastly, provide the latest EVM System Status as this indicates the
higher reliability of contractor reports generated by their EVMS.
2.2 INDEPENDENT ESTIMATE AT COMPLETION (IEAC)
An IEAC is DCMA’s forecast of the final total cost of the program. The EAC is an important
number used by program stakeholders. A program office relies on the EAC for securing
sufficient funding for the program. The DCMA IEAC represents an independent second opinion
of the final program costs. This provides the program office with important information to aid in
funding decisions by quantifying risk associated with both cost and schedule and evaluating
potential impacts if the current course of action is not changed.
EVMS PROGRAM ANALYSIS PAMPHLET OCT 2012
4
The process of determining the IEAC begins with determining the upper and lower statistical or
mathematical bounds with the following equations:
EAC
cpi
= ACWP
cum
+
(
BAC − BCWP
cum
)
CPI
cum
EAC
composite
= ACWP
cum
+
(BAC − BCWP
cum
)
(CPI
cum
∗ SPI
cum
)
Typically the EAC
cpi
formula provides a lower bound, or the most optimistic IEAC. The
EAC
composite
formula provides an upper bound, or the most pessimistic IEAC. This assumption is
based on CPI
cum
and SPI
cum
being less than 1. If both of these metrics are greater than 1 then the
reverse will be true; meaning EAC
cpi
will become the most pessimistic IEAC. These formulas
are most accurate when the program is between 15% complete and 95% complete. Outside of
these ranges the formulas may not provide accurate bounds.
The next step performs a detailed analysis of the contractor EAC by Work Breakdown Structure
(WBS) element at the lowest level available. This analysis involves determining the
reasonableness of the WBS level estimates with information gained from program surveillance
and other functional PST member input. This is the perfect place to make adjustments if the
contractor’s value does not appear reasonable. For a detailed discussion regarding analysis of a
contractor’s EAC please refer to “Examining the Comp
rehensive Estimate-at-Completion” found
in the references section of this Pamphlet.
A contractor’s most likely EAC is required to include some program risk factors. Review the
program risk registry and determine if the risks included by the contractor in their most likely
EAC are reasonable. These risks may present a consequence in terms of either cost or schedule.
Even schedule risks may end up presenting a cost risk in the end. However, it should be noted
that risks themselves might never result in a cost or schedule increase until the risk manifests
itself. Risk mitigation (abatement) on the other hand would need effort expended and result in
some cost and possible schedule impact. Any differences between the contractor’s estimate of
likely risks and DCMA’s assessment should be documented in terms of dollars.
EVMS PROGRAM ANALYSIS PAMPHLET OCT 2012
5
Finally, roll up any adjustments made to individual WBS element EACs and any changes made
to risks to determine the value of the DCMA IEAC. Check the rolled-up value against the two
formula values discussed earlier in this section. The rolled-up value may fall outside of the
statistical formula bounds, but this should be considered a flag. If this occurs, double check your
adjustments and ensure they are properly documented.
Some programs may have a Contract Funds Status Report (CFSR) requirement. CFSRs are
typically submitted to the program office on a quarterly basis. The CFSR provides a forecast of
the total program price at completion, to include any applicable fee. The contractor’s most likely
EAC reported on the monthly Contract Performance Report (CPR) should reconcile with the
forecast in the CFSR after taking into account the timing differences of the reports.
2.3 SUMMARY TABLE
This section of the PAR contains a summary table of metrics for the contract WBS (CWBS)
watch items identified in Section 2 of the PAR as well as other CWBS elements that require
management visibility. Appendix B of the PAR defines the assessment criteria for metrics in
terms of Green, Yellow, and Red. The following metrics are already defined in this Pamphlet
and can be found in the following sections:
2.2 INDEPENDENT ESTIMATE AT COMPLETION (IEAC)
3.1.1.1 COST PERFORMANCE INDEX (CPI)
3.1.1.3 THE RATIO: “PERCENT COMPLETE” TO “PERCENT SPENT”
3.1.2.1 SCHEDULE PERFORMANCE INDEX (SPI)
The remaining metrics are
• Schedule Variance (SV)
• Schedule Variance (SV) Trend
• Cost Variance (CV)
• Cost Variance (CV) Trend
Schedule Variance (SV) is the difference between the dollars of budget earned {the Budgeted
Cost for Work Performed (BCWP)} and the dollars planned to be earned to date {the Budgeted
Cost for Work Scheduled (BCWS)}. BCWP and BCWS can be found on the CPR Format 1.
Due to the various techniques available for calculating the amount of budget earned (BCWP),
EVMS PROGRAM ANALYSIS PAMPHLET OCT 2012
6
the SV metric should not be confused with a behind schedule or ahead of schedule condition. It
should be used as a general indicator of schedule performance and must be used in conjunction
with IMS analysis in accordance with this document as well as the DCMA Integrated Master
Schedule Assessment Guide to determine the true schedule status of the program. For example,
if the program incorporated into the schedule, the current delays might be absorbed and the
program would finish on time and perhaps even ahead of schedule. However, if extra time is not
available, then any negative SV would almost certainly result in a slip. Similarly, a positive SV
doesn’t necessarily mean that the program will finish on time or ahead of schedule.
The formula for calculating SV is as follows:
Schedule Variance (SV) = Earned − Budgeted
or
SV = BCWP − BCWS
SV less than zero (0) indicates an unfavorable schedule variance and perhaps unfavorable
performance. Conversely, SV values greater than zero (0) indicate a favorable schedule
variance.
The SV Trend compares the metric for a specific reporting period (usually monthly) to the same
metric in prior reporting periods. An SV trend is favorable if the SV increases in value over the
course of multiple reporting periods (i.e., three months). Conversely, the SV trend is
unfavorable if it decreases in value. Table 2 provides examples of the first trend while Table 3
provides an example of the second trend. Note in table 2, the metric for Project B actually shows
a negative monthly status although the trend is progressively less negative and therefore
favorable; Table 3 shows the inverse, that although the trend decreases unfavorably, the SV
itself remains positive.
EVMS PROGRAM ANALYSIS PAMPHLET OCT 2012
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Table 2. Favorable SV Trends
Reporting Period
Project A Project B
Schedule Variance (SV) Schedule Variance (SV)
January
$
6K -
$
8K
February
$
7K -
$
7K
March
$
8K -
$
6K
Table 3. Unfavorable SV Trends
Reporting Period
Project A Project B
Schedule Variance (SV) Schedule Variance (SV)
January
$
8K -
$
6K
February
$
7K -
$
7K
March
$
6K -
$
8K
Cost Variance (CV) is the difference of the value of budget earned, or Budgeted Cost for Work
Performed (BCWP), and the amount of costs incurred, or actual cost of work performed
(ACWP). BCWP and ACWP can be found on the CPR Format 1. The formula for calculating
CV is as follows:
Cost Variance (CV) = Earned − Actual
or
CV = BCWP − ACWP
A Cost Variance less than 0 indicates an unfavorable cost variance or more resources have been
spent to accomplish the work to date and that the project may be currently over budget.
Conversely, a CV greater than 0 indicates a favorable cost variance; the project is under budget
costing less than expected. As with the SV discussed earlier, CV is a snapshot of current
performance. The analyst must establish how these variances relate to and impact the whole
program.
Similar to the SV Trend, the CV Trend is a comparison of the metric for a specific reporting
period (usually monthly) to the same metric in prior reporting periods. A CV trend is favorable
EVMS PROGRAM ANALYSIS PAMPHLET OCT 2012
8
if the CV increases in value over the course of multiple reporting periods. Conversely, the CV
trend is unfavorable if it decreases in value. Examples are similar to those provided in the SV
Trend tables above.
2.4 CONTRACT VARIANCE AND PERFORMANCE CHARTS
This section of the PAR is a graphical view of various metrics depicting program performance
from program inception to date. These charts are presented as part of the Defense Acquisition
Executive Summary (DAES) review; which is routinely conducted at Office of the Secretary of
Defense for programs determined to be high risk or high visibility.
The first chart, Figure 1 Contract Variance Chart, depicts the following:
• Cost Variance
•
Schedule Variance
•
Management Reserve Usage,
•
Contractor Variance at Completion
•
Program Manager Variance at Completion
•
10% BCWP Thresholds
The Program Manager Variance at Completion (VAC) is calculated by subtracting the Program
Office EAC from the Budget at Completion (BAC) of the contract. The BAC can be found on
the CPR Format 1. VAC in general is calculated with the following formula:
Variance at Completion (VAC) = Budgeted − Estimated
or
VAC = BAC − EAC
The Variance at Completion identifies either a projected over-run (negative VAC) or an under-
run (positive VAC). If a contract is projected to overrun, it means the total cost at completion
will be greater than the budget.
The second chart, Figure 2 Contract Performance Chart, depicts
EVMS PROGRAM ANALYSIS PAMPHLET OCT 2012
9
• ACWP
•
BCWS
•
BCWP
•
Total Allocated Budget (TAB)
•
Contract Budget Base (CBB)
•
Contractor EAC
•
The program manager’s EAC over the period of performance of the contract.
Both Figure 1 and Figure 2 can be generated from wlnsight or by using Microsoft Excel file
found in the Resource Page Tab to this Pamphlet (http://guidebook.dcma.mil/).
2.5 VARIANCE ANALYSIS
Variance Analysis is the identification and explanation of the top cost and schedule drivers and
typically involves cumulative information. Variance analysis employing current data may also
be useful in identifying emerging trends that may signal concern. The WBS elements that
significantly contribute to the program cost and schedule variance should be discussed in this
section of the PAR. The CPR Format 1 contains the cost and schedule variance by WBS
element. When available, a wlnsight export file from the contractor’s EVMS may contain more
detailed WBS level information. If using a CPR Format 1, ensure you have a Microsoft Excel
electronic copy. If one is not available then populate a blank spreadsheet with the CPR
information.
The first step in identifying top drivers is to calculate cost variance percent (CV%) and schedule
variance percent (SV%). The CV% metric quantifies the magnitude of the cost variance (CV) by
dividing CV by BCWP and multiplying by 100. The formula for calculating
CV% is as follows:
CV% =
CV
BCWP
× 100
A high CV% indicates significant variance magnitude. Both positive and negative CV, and
likewise CV%, are considered drivers.
EVMS PROGRAM ANALYSIS PAMPHLET OCT 2012
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SV% is similar in that the metric quantifies the magnitude of the schedule variance (SV). The
formula for calculating SV% is as follows:
SV% =
SV
BCWS
× 100
A high SV% indicates significant variance magnitude. Both positive and negative SV, and
likewise SV%, are considered drivers.
If using wlnsight, the CV% and SV% fields are already calculated and available by inserting a
new column and selecting these elements. If using a CPR Format 1, ensure you either have the
MS Excel copy or have populated a MS Excel spreadsheet. Then use the formulas above to
calculate the metric by WBS element.
Once the CV% and SV% metrics have been calculated, sort the WBS elements by CV% from
smallest to largest. If there are WBS elements with negative (unfavorable) CV% they will be
displayed at the top of the list. If there are WBS elements with positive (favorable) CV% they
will be displayed at the bottom of the list. Select the largest favorable and unfavorable cost
drivers and include them in the variance analysis section of the PAR. Likewise, sort the list by
SV% and select the largest favorable and unfavorable schedule drivers.
Once the top schedule drivers have been identified, identify any resulting impacts to the key
milestones in the IMS. In order to do this the WBS elements in the CPR must be correlated to
activities in the IMS. Typically, contractors include a WBS reference column in the IMS for this
purpose. Obtain a copy of the IMS for the same month as the CPR being analyzed. Microsoft
Project is a common software tool used for creating an IMS. Filter for the WBS elements
identified as top schedule drivers. A list of activities will be displayed with logic links. Follow
the successors of these tasks until you find the first major milestone in the logic chain. A few
examples of major milestones are the Preliminary Design Review (PDR) or the Critical Design
Review (CDR). This will be the key milestone impacted by the schedule variance.
EVMS PROGRAM ANALYSIS PAMPHLET OCT 2012
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2.6 SCHEDULE ANALYSIS
The area of schedule analysis is broad and diverse. For the purpose of the PAR, two metrics will
be calculated: Critical Path Length Index (CPLI) and Baseline Execution Index (BEI). See
section 3.1.2.3 of this Pamphlet for a detailed discussion regarding CPLI or section 3.1.2.4 for
BEI.
2.7 BASELINE REVISIONS
The Baseline Revisions metric highlights changes made to the time-phased PMB (or budget)
over the past 6 -12 month period using the CPR Format 3. If the Format 3 has been tailored out,
request a wlnsight data file. A change of five or more percent is used as an early warning
indicator that the program’s time-phasing and control of budget is volatile in the near term and
that a significant departure from the original plan has occurred. This metric indicates how the
volatile near term baseline changes over time. Substantial changes to the baseline time phasing
may indicate the supplier has inadequate plans in place and the performance metrics may be
unreliable. Change is inevitable but the near term plan should
be firm and change control should
be exercised.
The Baseline Revisions metric is measured using “end of period” data from the CPR Format 3.
The Format 3 of the CPR (end of period) projects the PMB for future periods, and it’s important
to ensure that only the End of Month (EOM) data is being used for this calculation. An example
of the calculation is provided in the Baseline Revisions Spreadsheet found in the Resource Page
Tab to this Pamphlet (http://guidebook.dcma.mil/) and is calculated using the following steps:
1. Format a spreadsheet with the report dates of the six CPRs being analyzed in Column A,
Rows 2-7.
2. Format the spreadsheet with the forecast months beginning with the date from Block 6,
Column 4 of the oldest of the six CPR’s Format 3 and ending with the date from Block 6,
Column 9 of the most recent of the six CPR’s Format 3.
3. Input the values from “Six Month Forecast” in Block 6, Columns 4-9 of the oldest CPR
Format 3 into Row 2, Columns B-G.
EVMS PROGRAM ANALYSIS PAMPHLET OCT 2012
12
4. Continue inputting values from subsequent months CPR’s, aligning the dates from Block
6, Columns 4-9 of CPR Format 3 to the dates in Row 1 of the spreadsheet.
5. For the past 6 periods identified in row 1, identify the min and max values.
6. Calculate the Baseline Revision Percentage for each of the last 6 months using the
following calculation:
Baseline Revision
(
%
)
=
Maximum − Minimum
Minimum
× 100
If this metric exceeds 5% there is high volatility in the near term plan, and it should be
documented in the PAR as an issue. This metric can be generated/reported through wlnsight.
2.8 EVM SYSTEM STATUS
The EVM System Status is important for stakeholders that depend on EVMS data. The System
Status indicates if the data generated by the contractor EVMS is reliable for management
decision making. The DCMA Standard Surveillance Instruction (SSI) used by
CMOs and the
Compliance Review Instruction (CRI) used by the Operations EVM Implementation Division
outline what
steps are necessary to ensure a contractor EVMS is in compliance with ANSI/EIA-
748 Guidelines.
This section of the PAR requires the following information:
• The status of system acceptance by DCMA.
• EVM system surveillance results
• Status of open Corrective Action Requests (CAR) and ongoing Corrective Action
Plans (CAP)
The first bullet is a product of the CRI process and is represented by either a Letter of
Acceptance (LOA) or Advance Agreement (AA). The remaining bullets are products of the SSI
process. Take all of these items into consideration to determine the overall health of the
contractor’s EVMS.
EVMS PROGRAM ANALYSIS PAMPHLET OCT 2012
13
2.9 EV ASSESSMENT POINT OF CONTACT (POC)
The official EV point of contact for each contractor site is maintained on a spreadsheet by the
Engineering and Analysis
EVM Division
. Those POCs conduct system surveillance and
produce the applicable documents per the SSI. If there is a separate POC for program analysis,
list both names and
contact information in this section of the PAR.
EVMS PROGRAM ANALYSIS PAMPHLET OCT 2012
14
3.0 INTEGRATED DATA ANALYSIS PERFORMANCE INDICATORS
The integrated data analysis performance indicators (PIs) will be used by DCMA to quickly
determine program and overall supplier status with respect to EVMS and other functional areas.
The PIs will be located and maintained in Metrics Studio. Figure 1 below outlines the PIs
related to EVM. For ease of reference, the numbering scheme in section 3.0 of this Pamphlet
reflects the numbering scheme in Figure 1.
Figure 1: EVM Performance Indicators
3.1 PERFORMANCE DATA ANALYSIS
The performance indicators are grouped into two main categories: Performance Data Analysis
and Data Integrity Assessment. This section discusses Performance Data Analysis. As the
names suggest, these metrics relate to how well the program is performing with respect to cost,
schedule, and EAC management. These metrics reflect program execution
with respect to the
performance measurement baseline (PMB).
EVMS PROGRAM ANALYSIS PAMPHLET OCT 2012
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3.1.1 COST
The first subgroup of performance metrics is cost. The cost performance metrics selected for
performance indicators are Cost Performance Index (CPI), CPI Trend, and the ratio “%
complete” to “% spent.”
3.1.1.1 COST PERFORMANCE INDEX (CPI)
The Cost Performance Index (CPI) is an efficiency factor representing the relationship between
the performance accomplished (BCWP) and the actual cost expended (ACWP).
The CPI for
programs without an OTB is calculated as follows:
Cost Performance Index
cumulative
=
Earned
Actual
or
CPI
cum
=
BCWP
cum
ACWP
cum
An index of 1.00 or greater indicates that work is being accomplished at a cost equal to or below
what was planned. An index of less than 1.00 suggests work is accomplished at a cost greater
than planned. A cumulative index of less than 0.95 is used as an early warning indicator of cost
increase and should be investigated.
BCWP
cum
is found in block 8.g. column 8 of CPR Format 1 and ACWP
cum
in block 8.g. column
9. The CPI for programs with an OTB calculated to be less than 0.95 also serves as a warning
and should be investigated; this adjusted CPI is determined as follows:
CPI
adj
=
BCWP
cum
− BCWP
prior to OTB
ACWP
cum
− ACWP
prior to OTB
A single point adjustment (SPA) is a process that sets a contract’s existing cost and/or schedule
variances to zero and re-plans all the remaining work with the goal of completing the project on
schedule and on budget. Unlike an over-target baseline, the goal of an SPA is to develop a new
EVMS PROGRAM ANALYSIS PAMPHLET OCT 2012
16
PMB that completes all the remaining work using only the remaining budget from the original
PMB. No additional (over-target) budget is added to the new PMB. With the SPA reducing the
variances to zero, the Cost Performance Index would equal 1.
3.1.1.2 COST PERFORMANCE INDEX TREND
The CPI Trend is a comparison of the metric this reporting period (usually monthly) to the same
metric in prior reporting periods. A CPI trend is favorable if the CPI increases in value over the
course of multiple reporting periods. Conversely, the CPI trend is unfavorable if it decreases.
3.1.1.3 THE RATIO: “PERCENT COMPLETE” TO “PERCENT SPENT”
This metric is a ratio of two other metrics for the purpose of gauging the amount of budget spent
in relation to the amount of work completed. The first part of this metric, the
numerator, is
Percent Complete (%comp). The formula to calculate %comp is as follows:
Percent Complete (%) = %comp =
BCWP
cum
BAC
× 100
The value range of %comp is from 0% to 100%. It provides a measure of how far along the
program is toward project completion. The second part of the metric, the denominator, is
Percent Spent (%spent). The formula to calculate % spent is as follows:
Percent Spent
(
%
)
= %spent =
ACWP
cum
BAC
× 100
The value range of %spent starts at 0% and since it tracks actual cost, theoretically has no limit.
It provides a measure of how far along the program is toward completion in terms of the budget
at completion. If %spent is over 100%, it indicates a cost over-run condition has been realized.
The combination of
these two metrics results in the following formula:
%comp
%spent
=
BCWP
cum
BAC
⁄
ACWP
cum
BAC
⁄
=
BCWP
cum
ACWP
cum
= Cost Performance Index
(
CPI
)
EVMS PROGRAM ANALYSIS PAMPHLET OCT 2012
17
When measured independently, %comp and %spent provide additional insight into program
performance. As shown above, the ratio of these two metrics results in the CPI.
An alternative calculation for %spent sometimes employed in the industry compares the actual
cost to the estimate of the total cost for the total contract (EAC). As noted in section 5.14, the
EAC differs from the BAC by moving away from earned value that results from the budgeted
baseline and builds on the actual costs to date (ACWP) plus a forecasted cost to complete the
program (ETC). As noted in the presentation of the Independent Estimate at Completion (IEAC)
in Section 2.2, the estimate to complete is actually a range of values that attempts to predict the
final program cost and it may consequently be computed in accordance with a number of
methodologies.
First, it could be based on an assumption that future work will be accomplished at the established
budgeted rate. If project assessment for tracking actual performance is unfavorable, then the
inherent assumption that future performance will rise to the budgeted expectations may not be
valid.
Secondly, in computing EAC, it could be assumed that the previous actual performance /
efficiency will continue into the future and the Cost Performance Index (CPI) may be a
reasonable modifier of the budgeted cost at completion to indicate the final program cost. Some
techniques for computing EAC consider both cost and schedule performance factors by
employing the SPI and the CPI collectively to modify the ETC which is then summed with the
actual cost. Variations on this technique weight SPI and CPI (75/25, 50/50, etc.) based on their
relative impact on project performance and thus their influence on future performance.
Other techniques include statistical approaches employing regression or Monte Carlo simulations
or a “bottom’s up” summation of EAC’s at different WBS levels. The different methodologies
for computing EAC testify to an inherent flexibility of the metric to match the complexities of
any given project and could if employed properly and considered in light of their base
assumptions, provide valuable tools for tracking and projecting project performance. However,
this variability undermines EAC’s usefulness in computing percent spent in a consistent manner.
EVMS PROGRAM ANALYSIS PAMPHLET OCT 2012
18
Consequently, DCMA EVMS Specialists consistently employ the Budget at Completion for
computing %spent.
3.1.2 SCHEDULE
The second subgroup of performance metrics is schedule. The schedule performance metrics
selected for performance indicators are the Schedule Performance Index (SPI), the SPI Trend,
the Critical Path Length Index (CPLI), and the Baseline Execution Index (BEI).
3.1.2.1 SCHEDULE PERFORMANCE INDEX (SPI)
The Schedule Performance Index (SPI) is an efficiency factor representing the relationship
between the performance achieved and the initial planned schedule. The SPI for programs
without an OTB is calculated as follows:
Schedule Performance Index
cumulative
=
Earned
Budgeted
or
SPI
cum
=
BCWP
cum
BCWS
cum
An index of 1.00 or greater indicates that work is being accomplished at a rate on or ahead of
what was planned. An index of less than 1.00 suggests work is being accomplished at a rate
below the planned schedule. An index of less than 0.95 is used as an early warning indication of
execution and should be investigated.
BCWP
cum
is found in block 8.g. column 8 of CPR Format 1 and BCWS
cum
in block 8.g. column
7. The SPI for programs with an OTB is calculated as:
SPI
cum
=
BCWP
cum
− BCWP
cum @ time of OTB
BCWS
cum
− BCWS
cum @ time of OTB
EVMS PROGRAM ANALYSIS PAMPHLET OCT 2012
19
3.1.2.2 SCHEDULE PERFORMANCE INDEX (SPI) TREND
Similar to the CPI Trend, the SPI Trend is a comparison of the metric for this reporting period
(usually monthly) to the same metric in prior reporting periods. An SPI trend is favorable if
the
SPI increases in value over the course of multiple reporting periods. Conversely, the SPI trend is
unfavorable if it decreases in value.
3.1.2.3 CRITICAL PATH LENGTH INDEX (CPLI)
The Critical Path Length Index (CPLI) is a measure of the efficiency required to complete a
milestone on-time. It measures critical path “realism” relative to the baselined finish date, when
constrained. A CPLI of 1.00 means that the program must accomplish one day’s worth of work
for every day that passes. A CPLI less than 1.00 means that the program schedule is inefficient
with regard to meeting the baseline date of the milestone (i.e. going to finish late). A CPLI
greater than 1.00 means the program is running efficiently with regard to meeting the baseline
date of the milestone (i.e. going to finish early). The CPLI is an indicator of efficiency relating
to tasks on a milestone’s critical path (not to other tasks within the schedule). The CPLI is a
measure of the relative achievability of the critical path. A CPLI less than 0.95 should be
considered a flag and requires further investigation.
The CPLI requires determining the program schedule’s Critical Path Length (CPL) and the Total
Float (TF). The CPL is the length in work days from time now until the next program milestone
that is being measured. TF is the amount of days a project can be delayed before delaying the
project completion date. TF can be negative, which reflects that the program is behind schedule.
The mathematical calculation of total float is generally accepted to be the difference between the
“late finish” date and the “early finish” date (late finish minus early
finish equals total float).
The formula for CPLI is as follows:
Critical Path Length Index (CPLI) =
CPL + TF
CPL
For programs that provide the IMS in a native schedule format, use the “Critical Path guide” to
determine the program’s critical path. Once the critical path has been identified, the CPL is
EVMS PROGRAM ANALYSIS PAMPHLET OCT 2012
20
calculated by inserting a new task into the IMS, with an actual start date of the IMS status date.
The CPL is determined by inserting a number value in the duration of
this new task until the
finish date equals the finish date of the completion milestone identified
by the critical path
analysis. This is a trial and error process to get the correct duration for the CPL. Total Float for
the completion milestone is recorded for conducting the CPLI calculation.
For programs that provide the IMS in a static format, the CPL is estimated by counting workdays
between the start and finish. This can also be done by creating a new project file and entering
the dates in the manner described in the Critical Path Guide. Total Float used for this method is
the float for the completion milestone identified on the critical path. If the IMS is not delivered
in the native software tool and is not independently verified note the data used, method of
verifica
tion or that verification could not be independently conducted, and method used to assess
the critical path.
In addition to recording the CPLI results, it is important to document any rationale for the
completion milestone chosen and the analysis method used to calculate the critical path. It is
also important to note if the final milestone or task in the schedule has a baseline finish date
beyond the contract period of performance (CPR Format 3, Block 5.k.).
3.1.2.4 BASELINE EXECUTION INDEX (BEI)
The Baseline Execution Index (BEI) metric is an IMS-based metric that calculates the efficiency
with which tasks have been accomplished when measured against the baseline tasks. In other
words, it is a measure of task throughput. The BEI provides insight into the realism of program
cost, resource, and schedule estimates. It compares the cumulative number of tasks completed to
the cumulative number of tasks with a baseline finish date on or before the current reporting
period. BEI does not provide insight into tasks completed early or late (before or after the
baseline finish date), as long as the task was completed prior to time now. See the Hit Task
Percentage metric below for further insight into on-time performance. If the contractor
completes more tasks than planned, then the BEI will be higher than 1.00 reflecting a higher task
throughput than planned. Tasks missing baseline finish dates are included in the denominator. A
BEI less than 0.95 should be
considered a flag and requires additional investigation. The BEI is
calculated as follows:
EVMS PROGRAM ANALYSIS PAMPHLET OCT 2012
21
BEI
cum
=
Total # of Tasks Complete
Total # of Tasks Completed Before Now + Total # of Tasks Missing Baseline Finish Date
The BEI is always compared against the Hit Task Percentage. The Hit Task Percentage is a
metric that measures the number of tasks completed early or on time to the number of tasks with
a baseline finish date within a given fiscal month. This metric can never exceed a value of 1,
since the metric assesses the status of tasks with a base finish date within a single fiscal month.
The following are definitions to become familiar with when calculating the BEI metric:
• Total Tasks: The total number of tasks with detail level work associated to them
• Baseline Count: The number of tasks with a baseline finish date on or before the
reporting period end
Begin by exporting or copying the IMS data to an MS Excel Worksheet. Include the Unique ID,
Task Name, EV Method, Duration, Summary, Actual Finish, Baseline Finish and Finish
Variance fields from the IMS file. Employ the following steps:
1. Filter out Level of Effort (LOE) tasks, summary tasks, and zero duration tasks
(milestones).
2. Filter the Baseline Finish data to include only dates up to the current reporting period of
the IMS.
3. Subtotal the number of tasks as the “Baseline Count”.
4. Undo the filter on Baseline Finish.
5. Filter the Actual Finish data to include only dates up to the current reporting period of the
IMS.
6. Subtotal the number of tasks as the “Total number of tasks completed”.
7. Undo the filter on Actual Finish.
8. Divide the “Total number of tasks completed” by the “Baseline Count” to get the BEI
value.
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22
The Hit Task Percentage is calculated as follows:
Hit Task % =
Total # of tasks complete on or before task baseline date
# of tasks with baseline finish date within current reporting period
Steps:
1. Using the same spreadsheet used to calculate the BEI, clear all filters and reapply filters
to remove all LOE, summary and zero duration (milestone) tasks.
2. Filter the baseline finish less than or equal to current reporting month end.
3. Subtotal these tasks as “Current Period Baseline Count” tasks.
4. Filter (within above filter) the actual finish less than or equal to baseline finish date.
5. Subtotal these tasks as “Actual Hit”.
6. Divide the “Actual Hit” number by the “Current Period Baseline” number to get the
Current Hit Task Percentage.
3.1.3 ESTIMATE AT COMPLETION (EAC)
The third subgroup of performance metrics is estimate at completion (EAC). The EAC metrics
selected for performance indicators are CPI-TCPI and the ratio of BAC to EAC and %comp to
%MR used.
3.1.3.1 “COST PERFORMANCE INDEX” – “TO COMPLETE PERFORMANCE
INDEX”
This metric compares the Cost Performance Index (CPI
cum
) to the To Complete Performance
Index (TCPI
EAC
). This metric gauges the realism of the contractor’s Latest Revised Estimate
(LRE) or Estimate at Completion (EAC) and is most useful when the program is at least 15%
complete and less than 95% complete. A mathematical difference of 0.10 or greater is used as an
early warning indication that the contractor’s forecasted completion cost could possibly be
unrealistic, stale, or not updated recently.
A CPI
cum
– TCPI
EAC
difference greater than or equal to 0.10 (Using the absolute value of the
difference) should be considered a flag. To begin it is first necessary to calculate the CPI
cum
.
EVMS PROGRAM ANALYSIS PAMPHLET OCT 2012
23
Follow the same method described in section 3.1.1.1 of this Pamphlet. The CPI
cum
.formula is
repeated here for convenience:
Cost Performance Index (CPI
cum
) =
BCWP
cum
ACWP
cum
TCPI
EAC
reflects the work remaining divided by the cost remaining as follows:
To Complete Performance Index
(
TCPI
EAC
)
=
BAC − BCWP
cum
EAC − ACWP
cum
In the case of an OTB, replace Budget at Completion (BAC) with the Total Allocated Budget
(TAB). The EAC used in this formula is the contractor’s most likely EAC from Block 6.c. of the
header information in the CPR Format 1.
The CPI
cum
and the TCPI
EAC
are compared to evaluate the realism of the supplier’s EAC and to
evaluate the reasonableness of using past efficiencies to predict future efficiencies. It is possible
that the nature of the work has changed thus making predictions based on past performance
unjustified.
3.1.3.2 THE RATIO: “BUDGET AT COMPLETION” TO “ESTIMATE AT
COMPLETION”
The budget at completion (BAC) and estimate at completion (EAC) are values that can be found
on the CPR Format 1. This metric divides BAC by EAC to determine a ratio. A ratio value
above 1.0 indicates the program is estimate to complete under cost. A ratio value of less than 1.0
indicates a projected cost over-run.
3.1.3.3 THE RATIO: “% COMPLETE” TO “% MANAGEMENT RESERVE USED”
This metric divides the program percent complete (%comp) by the percentage of management
reserve (%MR) used to date. It provides insight into how quickly the MR is being depleted. If
the rate of MR usage is high it may indicate the original performance measurement baseline did
not contain the necessary budget for accomplishing the contract statement of work. Since this
EVMS PROGRAM ANALYSIS PAMPHLET OCT 2012
24
metric is a ratio of two different metrics, those components
must be calculated first. To calculate
%comp use the following formula:
Percent Complete = %comp =
BCWP
cum
BAC
× 100
To calculate %MR, use the following formula:
Percent Management Reserve = %MR =
Total amount of MR used
Total amount of MR added to the program
Keep in mind that MR may be added or removed based on contractual actions. So it is important
to account for all the MR debits and credits when calculating this metric. It is not simply the
current value of MR divided by the original value of MR. In fact, if significant credits have been
made to MR since program inception, the current MR value might actually be greater than the
original value, even if some MR was debited.
Now take the ratio of %comp and %MR:
Ratio =
Percent Complete
Percent Management Reserve
=
%comp
%MR
The resulting value should be equal to 1.0 ± 0.1. A value greater than 1.0 indicates that the
Management Reserve is possibly being too conservatively withheld, while a value less than 1.0
indicates that there may not be enough Management Reserve to support the program through
completion.
3.2 DATA INTEGRITY ASSESSMENT
This section of the EVM performance indicators discusses Data Integrity. As the name suggests,
these metrics determine the validity and accuracy of EVM data produced by the contractor for
management decision making. These metrics reflect the trustworthiness of EVM reports, such as
the CPR.
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3.2.1 SYSTEM COMPLIANCE
As the Department of Defense Cognizant Federal Agency for EVMS compliance, DCMA
determines the system compliance of a contractor’s EVMS. System Compliance is one type of
data integrity assessment as it helps ensure the EVM data is valid.
3.2.1.1 SYSTEM COMPLIANCE STATUS RATING
The system compliance rating can be Approved, Disapproved, Not Evaluated, or Not Applicable.
See section 2.8 for a detailed discussion regarding the EVM system status. Official ratings can
be found in the Contractor Business Analysis Repository (CBAR) eTool.
3.2.2 BASELINE QUALITY
Baseline quality is a type of data integrity assessment that determines the quality of the initial
performance measurement baseline (PMB). The metrics indicate the amount of planning and
forethought placed into the PMB.
3.2.2.1 BASELINE INDICATOR
The Baseline Indicator assesses the health of the contractor’s Performance Measurement
Baseline (PMB). It is a qualitative metric that identifies the quality, completeness and adequacy
of the contractor’s Integrated Baseline Review (IBR) and any follow-on baseline reviews. The
following is a list of events that would adversely impact this indicator:
1. Initial IBR not conducted within 180 days from the contract award date.
2. Incomplete IBR conducted; cost, schedule, technical, resource and management risks not
addressed in the IBR.
3. Inadequate plan to address the program risks; risks can be assessed as high but the
supplier either needs to have a plan to mitigate the risk or account for it with a larger
Estimate at Completion (EAC).
4. Follow on IBRs not conducted within 180 days.
EVMS PROGRAM ANALYSIS PAMPHLET OCT 2012
26
5. IBR not conducted after major scope changes, formal reprogramming/restructuring or re-
baseline efforts.
6. Baseline does not capture the total scope of work.
7. Supplier does not have an executable, time-phased plan (resourced IMS).
8. Multiple, ineffective Over Target Baselines (OTBs) or incorrectly implemented OTBs
over the life of the program.
9. Excessive, ongoing baseline revisions.
Documents to review include the IBR briefs, action item resolution forms, and out-brief risks
and risk mitigation plans. With respect to IBR documentation, ensure that:
1. The date the IBR is conducted falls within the required time limit from contract award.
2. If high risks were identified at IBR:
a. Have the risks been mitigated? or
b. Have mitigation plans been developed? or
c. Have the risks been offset by budgetary and/or schedule considerations?
With respect to the IMS, ensure that:
1. All tasks have baseline start and baseline finish dates.
2. IMS has incorporated the Risk and Mitigation plans from IBR or subsequent re-plans.
3. Frank discussions with PI and EVMS Specialists are held to get their opinion of the
adequacy/scope of the IBR(s).
3.2.2.2 BASELINE REVISIONS INDEX
See section 2.7 for a detailed discussion regarding the baseline revisions index.
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3.2.2.3 CONTRACT MODIFICATIONS
The Contract Modifications metric highlights changes made to the contract dollar value from the
time of award to the present. A delta of ten percent is used as an early warning indication that
the program’s technical requirements may not have been understood at the time of contract
award, that poor contracting practices may have been in place, and/or that the entire scope of the
contract may not have been entirely understood. This metric helps to identify when new
requirements have been added to the contract (requirements creep) or when existing
requirements have been modified extensively. A Contract Modifications percentage greater than
or equal to 10% should be considered a flag. The Contract Modification Calculation is
performed as follows:
Contract Mods % =
(
CPR Format 3 Block 5. e
)
− (CPR Format 3 Block 5. a)
CPR Format 3 Block 5. a
× 100
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4.0 14 POINT SCHEDULE METRICS FOR IMS (PROJECT/OPEN PLAN, ETC.)
ANALYSIS
The DCMA 14 Point Schedule Metrics were developed to identify potential problem areas with a
contractor’s IMS. This analysis should exclude Completed tasks, LOE tasks, Subprojects (called
Summary tasks in MS Project), and Milestones. These metrics provide the analyst with a
framework for asking educated questions and performing follow-up research. The identification
of a “red” metric is not in and of itself synonymous with failure but rather an indicator or a
catalyst to dig deeper in the analysis for understanding the reason for the situation.
Consequently, correction of that metric is not necessarily required, but it should be understood.
A detailed and comprehensive training course has been developed (Reference 3). The training
identifies the techniques (14 Point Assessment), tools, and reference materials used by EVMS
Specialists to accomplish schedule analysis requirements. After taking the course, students will
be able to determine whether schedules are realistic and perform schedule analysis using tools
such as MS Project and MS Excel. The Agency’s automated MS Project macro for performing
the 14 Point Assessment is demonstrated and provided within the course presentation; which is
available online at
http://guidebook.dcma.mil/51/index.cfm#tools.
4.1 LOGIC
This metric identifies incomplete tasks with missing logic links. It helps identify how well or
poorly the schedule is linked together. Even if links exist, the logic still needs to be verified by
the technical leads to ensure that the links make sense. Any incomplete task that is missing a
predecessor and/or a successor is included in this metric. The number of tasks without
predecessors and/or successors should not exceed 5%. An excess of
5% should be considered a
flag. The formula for calculating this metric is as follows:
Missing Logic % =
# of tasks missing logic
# of incomplete tasks
× 100
4.2 LEADS
This metric identifies the number of logic links with a lead (negative lag) in predecessor
relationships for incomplete tasks. The critical path and any subsequent analysis can be
EVMS PROGRAM ANALYSIS PAMPHLET OCT 2012
29
adversely affected by using leads. The use of leads distorts the total float in the schedule and
may cause resource conflicts. Per the IMS Data Item Description (DID), negative time is not
demonstrable and should not be encouraged. Using MS Excel, count the number of “Leads” that
are found. Leads should not be used; therefore, the
goal for this metric is 0.
Leads % =
# of logic links with leads
# of logic links
× 100
4.3 LAGS
This represents the number of lags in predecessor logic relationships for incomplete tasks. The
critical path and any subsequent analysis can be adversely affected by using lags. Per the IMS
DID, lag should not be used to manipulate float/slack or to restrain the schedule. Using MS
Excel, count the number of “Lags” that are found. The
number relationships with lags should
not exceed 5%.
Lags % =
# of logic links with lags
# of logic links
× 100
4.4 RELATIONSHIP TYPES
The metric provides a count of incomplete tasks containing each type of logic link. The Finish-
to-Start (FS) relationship type (“once the predecessor is finished, the successor can start”)
provides a logical path through the program and should account for at least 90% of the
relationship types being used. The Start-to-Finish (SF) relationship type is counter-intuitive
(“the successor can’t finish until the predecessor starts”) and should only be used very rarely and
with detailed justification. By counting the number of Start- to-Start (SS), Finish-to-Finish (FF),
and Start-to-Finish (SF) relationship types, the % of
Finish-to-Start (FS) relationship types can
be calculated.
% of FS Relationship Types =
# of logic links with FS Relationships
# of logic links
× 100
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4.5 HARD CONSTRAINTS
This is a count of incomplete tasks with hard constraints in use. Using hard constraints [Must-
Finish-On (MFO), Must-Start-On (MSO), Start-No-Later-Than (SNLT), & Finish-No-Later-
Than (FNLT)] may prevent tasks from being moved by their dependencies and, therefore,
prevent the schedule from being logic-driven. Soft constraints such as As-Soon-As-Possible
(ASAP), Start-No-Earlier-Than (SNET), and Finish-No-Earlier-Than (FNET) enable the
schedule to be logic-driven. Divide the total number of hard constraints by the number of
incomplete tasks. The number of tasks with hard
constraints should not exceed 5%.
Hard Constraint % =
Total # of incomplete tasks with hard constraints
Total # of incomplete tasks
× 100
4.6 HIGH FLOAT
An incomplete task with total float greater than 44 working days (2 months) is counted in this
metric. A task with total float over 44 working days may be a result of missing predecessors
and/or successors. If the percentage of tasks with excessive total float
exceeds 5%, the network
may be unstable and may not be logic-driven.
High Float % =
Total # of incomplete tasks with high float
Total # of incomplete tasks
× 100
4.7 NEGATIVE FLOAT
An incomplete task with total float less than 0 working days is included in this metric. It helps
identify tasks that are delaying completion of one or more milestones. Tasks with negative float
should have an explanation and a corrective action plan to mitigate the negative float. Divide the
total number of tasks with negative float by the number of
incomplete tasks. Ideally, there
should not be any negative float in the schedule.
Negative Float % =
Total # of incomplete tasks with negative float
Total # of incomplete tasks
× 100
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31
4.8 HIGH DURATION
An incomplete task with a baseline duration greater than 44 working days (2 months), and has a
baseline start date within the detail planning period or rolling wave is included in this metric. It
helps to determine whether or not a task can be broken into two or more discrete tasks rather
than one. In addition, it helps to make tasks more manageable; which provides better insight into
cost and schedule performance. Divide the number of incomplete tasks with high duration tasks
by the total number of
incomplete tasks. The number of tasks with high duration should not
exceed 5%.
High Duration % =
Total # of incomplete tasks with high duration
Total # of incomplete tasks
× 100
4.9 INVALID DATES
Incomplete tasks that have a forecast start/finish date prior to the IMS status date, or has an
actual start/finish date beyond the IMS status date are included in this metric. A task should
have forecast start and forecast finish dates in the future relative to the status date of the IMS (i.e.
if the IMS status date is 8/1/09, the forecast date should be on or after 8/1/09). A task should not
have an actual start or actual finish date that is in the future relative to the status date of the IMS
(i.e. if the IMS status date is 8/1/09, the actual start or finish date should be on or before 8/1/09,
not after 8/1/09). There should not be any invalid dates in the schedule.
4.10 RESOURCES
This metric provides verification that all tasks with durations greater than zero have dollars or
hours assigned. Some contractors may not load their resources into the IMS. The IMS DID (DI-
MGMT-81650) does not require the contractor to load resources directly into the schedule. If
the contractor does resource load their schedule, calculate the metric by dividing the number of
incomplete tasks without dollars/hours assigned by
the total number of incomplete tasks.
Missing Resource % =
Total # of incomplete tasks with missing resource
Total # of incomplete tasks
× 100
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4.11 MISSED TASKS
A task is included in this metric if it is supposed to be completed already (baseline finish date on
or before the status date) and the actual finish date or forecast finish date (early finish date) is
after the baseline finish date or the Finish Variance (Early Finish minus Baseline Finish) is
greater than zero. This metric helps identify how well or poorly the schedule is meeting the
baseline plan. To calculate this metric, divide the number of missed tasks by the baseline count
which does not include the number of tasks missing
baseline start or finish dates. The number of
missed tasks should not exceed 5%.
Missed % =
# of tasks with actual/forecast finish date past baseline date
# of tasks with baseline finish dates on or before status date
× 100
4.12 CRITICAL PATH TEST
The purpose is to test the integrity of the overall network logic and, in particular, the critical
path. If the project completion date (or other milestone) is not delayed in direct proportion
(assuming zero float) to the amount of intentional slip that is introduced into the schedule as part
of this test, then there is broken logic somewhere in the network. Broken logic is the result of
missing predecessors and/or successors on tasks where they are needed. The IMS passes the
Critical Path Test if the project completion date (or other task/milestone) show a negative total
float number or a revised Early Finish date that is in direct proportion (assuming zero float) to
the amount of intentional slip applied.
4.13 CRITICAL PATH LENGTH INDEX (CPLI)
See section 3.1.2.3 for a detailed discussion regarding the critical path length index.
4.14 BASELINE EXECUTION INDEX (BEI)
See section 3.1.2.4 for a detailed discussion regarding the Baseline Execution Index.
EVMS PROGRAM ANALYSIS PAMPHLET OCT 2012
33
5.0 DATA INTEGRITY INDICATORS
Data integrity indicators are metrics designed to provide confidence in the quality of the data
being reviewed. Many of the other metrics described in the EVMSPAP are designed to provide
insight into the performance of a program. The data integrity metrics are not primarily intended
for program performance information. If control accounts or work packages have one of the
conditions being tested for by these metrics, then the EVMS Specialist should investigate further.
5.1 BCWS
cum
> BAC
The Budgeted Cost for Work Scheduled (BCWS) is the program budget time-phased over the
period of performance. The summation of BCWS for all reporting periods should equal the
budget at completion (BAC). In other words, BCWS
CUM
should equal BAC on the month the
program is planned to complete. Both of these values can be found on the CPR Format 1. Due
to this relationship, the value of BCWS
CUM
should never exceed BAC. Errors may exist in
EVMS data resulting in this condition, thereby making it necessary to perform this metric. The
calculation of this metric is simple. Compare the value of BCWS
CUM
to the value of BAC; if
BCWS
cum
is greater than BAC, consider this an error in the EVMS data and pursue corrective
action. There is no plausible explanation. If the value of BCWS
cum
is less than BAC, there is no
issue.
5.2 BCWP
cum
> BAC
The Budgeted Cost for Work Performed (BCWP) is the amount of BCWS earned by the
completion of work to date. Like the metric in section 5.1, BCWP
cum
may not exceed the value
of BAC. The program is considered complete when BCWP
cum
equals BAC. The calculation of
this metric is simple. Compare the value of BCWP
cum
to BAC. If
BCWP
cum
is greater, then this
is an error requiring corrective action. Otherwise there is
no issue.
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5.3 ACWP
cum
WITH NO BAC
The actual cost of work performed (ACWP) is the total dollars spent on labor, material,
subcontracts, and other direct costs in the performance of the contract statement of work. These
costs are controlled by the accounting general ledger and should reconcile between the
accounting system and EVMS. Work should only be performed if there is a clear contractual
requirement. The BAC is required to be traceable to work requirements in the contract statement
of work. If work is performed and ACWP
cum
incurred without applicable BAC, there may be a
misalignment between this work and the requirements of the contract. To test for this condition,
simply review the CPR Format 1 or wlnsight data for WBS elements containing ACWP
cum
but
no BAC. If there are elements that meet these criteria, consider this an error that must be
investigated. The contractor should provide justification and must take corrective action
regardless of the reason.
5.4 ACWP
cur
WITH NO BAC
Similar to section 5.3 above, this metric differs in that current reporting period actual costs
(ACWP
cur
) are being compared to the BAC. The calculation of this metric and the meaning of
its results are identical to section 5.3.
5.5 NEGATIVE BAC
BAC is the total budget assigned to complete the work defined within the contract. A negative
total budget is not logical. To test for this condition simply examine the CPR Format 1 or
wlnsight data for a BAC less than zero. This test should be performed at the reported WBS
levels as well as the total program level. A BAC less than zero should be considered an error
and corrective action must be taken by the contractor.
5.6 ZERO BUDGET WPs
Work packages (WPs) are natural subdivisions of control accounts (CAs). The summation of all
WP budgets within a given CA results in the CA budget. If there is a WP with a budget of zero,
it should be considered a flag because no work can be performed without budget. At a
minimum, there is no need for the WP with a BAC of zero. To test for this condition a detailed
EVMS PROGRAM ANALYSIS PAMPHLET OCT 2012
35
EVMS report must be obtained from the contract. The CPR Format 1 will not contain sufficient
detail down to the WP level. The
contractor should be prepared to export the EVMS data down
to the WP level in a format compatible with the UNCEFACT/XML schema; the DCMA EVM
specialist can employ wlnsight to assess the program. It is
important to understand at which
levels of the WBS the contractor established CAs and WPs. Examine this report to determine if
any WPs have a BAC of zero. Consider this condition an error that requires at least an
explanation and perhaps corrective action.
5.7 LEVEL OF EFFORT WITH SCHEDULE VARIANCE
Level of effort (LOE) is an earned value technique (EVT) used to calculate BCWP for work that
is supportive in nature and produces no definable end product. See ANSI/EIA-748 EVMS
Guideline 12 for more information on LOE requirements. The LOE technique automatically
earns BCWP equal to the amount of BCWS for the reporting period. Since schedule variance
(SV) is defined as the difference between BCWP and BCWS, work measure with the LOE EVT
should have an SV of zero. BCWP is earned at the WP level. Therefore a report with WP level
detail and indication of EVT used is required to perform this metric. This report can be
requested from the contractor as a wlnsight export or other electronic format, such as Microsoft
Excel. Simply check all elements with an EVT of LOE for an SV other than zero. If this
condition exists consider it an error that requires corrective action.
5.8 BCWP WITH NO ACWP
Since work or materials must be paid for, it is not possible to earn BCWP without incurring
ACWP. This condition may occur for elements using the LOE EVT. In this case, it would
signify the support work that was planned to occur is not occurring due to some delay. The
delay is likely in the work the LOE function would support. Either way, this condition should be
flagged and investigated to determine the root cause. This metric can be calculated using the
CPR Format 1 or more detailed wlnsight data. Inspect the elements on the report for any
instance of BCWP
cum
with an ACWP
cum
equal to zero.
EVMS PROGRAM ANALYSIS PAMPHLET OCT 2012
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5.9 COMPLETED WORK WITH ETC
Work is considered complete when the CA or WP BCWP
cum
equals BAC. The estimate to
complete (ETC) is the to-go portion of the estimate at completion (EAC). The ETC
should be
zero if the work is complete, as there should be no projected future cost left to
incur. A detailed
report from the contractor’s EVMS is required to calculate this metric. The report will need to
have all the information contained in the CPR Format 1 in addition to providing the ETC by
WBS element. Examine this report for completed elements (BCWP
cum
= BAC) with an ETC
other than zero. This condition may exist if labor or material invoices are lagging behind and
haven’t been paid yet. However, this requires investigation to determine the root cause.
5.10 INCOMPLETE WORK WITHOUT ETC
This metric is the converse of section 5.9 of this Pamphlet. If work has yet to be completed,
there should be a forecast of the remaining costs to be incurred. Obtain a report similar to the
one described in the previous section. Determine if there are any elements that are incomplete
(BCWP
cum
< BAC) and contain an ETC of zero. If this condition exists consider it an error that
requires corrective action.
5.11 ACWP ON COMPLETED WORK
As discussed in section 5.9 of this Pamphlet, there may be valid reasons to incur cost (ACWP)
following the completion of work (BCWP
cum
= BAC). However, this should not be considered
the norm. Review the CPR format 1 or a more detailed wlnsight report for the following:
1. BCWP
cum
= BAC, and
2. BCWP
cur
= 0, and
3. ACWP
cur
≠0
Keep in mind there may be costs incurred in the month the element of work is complete. That is
why it’s necessary to check for item 2 above. This insures the work was completed in a prior
period and if item 3 returns a value other than zero the metric is
flagged. Investigate further and
require corrective action if necessary.
EVMS PROGRAM ANALYSIS PAMPHLET OCT 2012
37
5.12 CPI-TCPI > 0.10
This metric differs from others in this section as it does not result in a clear error. A CPI-TCPI >
0.10 may indicate an overly pessimistic EAC; that is, in this case, the EAC implies an expected
drop in cost performance by 0.10 or more for the remainder of the contract. It should be used as
a flag for further investigation into the reasonableness of the EAC. This metric can be performed
at the control account or total program level. See section 3.1.3.1 for further details on this
metric.
5.13 CPI-TCPI < -0.10
This metric differs from others in this section as it does not result in a clear error. A CPI-TCPI <
0.10 may indicate an overly optimistic EAC that implies an expected increase in cost
performance by 0.10 or more for the remainder of the contract. It should be used as a flag for
further investigation into the reasonableness of the EAC. This metric can be performed at the
control account or total program level. See section 3.1.3.1 for further details on this metric.
5.14 ACWP
CUM
> EAC
The Estimate at Completion (EAC) consists of two components, the actual costs incurred to date
(ACWP
cum
) and the estimate of future costs to be incurred or the estimate to completion (ETC).
The EAC formula is as follows:
EAC = ACWP
cum
+ ETC
The ACWP
cum
can only be greater than EAC if the ETC is negative. There may be limited cases
that would require a negative ETC. However, this is not the norm. Using the CPR Format 1 or a
wlnsight report, examine the elements for any condition of ACWP
cum
greater than EAC. If this
condition exists, further investigation is required.
5.15 NEGATIVE BCWS
CUM
OR NEGATIVE BCWS
CUR
The Budgeted Cost for Work Scheduled (BCWS) is the time-phased contract budget. The
summation of BCWS for all reporting periods equals the total contract budget at completion.
When the initial baseline is established there should be no instances of negative BCWS.
EVMS PROGRAM ANALYSIS PAMPHLET OCT 2012
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However, as work progresses there may be legitimate reasons for re- planning of budget. These
changes to the baseline may result in a negative value for budget in the current reporting period,
or BCWS
cur
. It is not possible to re-plan more budget than has already been time-phased to date.
Therefore, there should not be an instance of negative BCWS
cum
. To test for this condition
simply examine the current and cumulative sections of the CPR Format 1 for BCWS
cum
or
BCWS
cur
less than zero. If there are instances of either value being negative, investigate further
to determine the root cause.
5.16 NEGATIVE BCWP
cum
OR NEGATIVE BCWP
cur
Similar to section 5.15 of this Pamphlet, there may be instances of negative BCWP due to re-
plan actions. However, a re-plan would not result in negative cumulative performance, or
BCWP
cum
. To test for this condition simply examine the current and cumulative sections of the
CPR Format 1 for BCWP
cum
or BCWP
cur
less than zero. If there are instances of either value
being negative, investigate further to determine the root cause.
5.17 EVM COST TOOL TO IMS WORK PACKAGE COMPARISON
This metric is the only one in section 5.0 of this Pamphlet that requires an examination of two
integrated EVMS subcomponents, the cost and scheduling tools. The intent is to ensure the
integrated master schedule (IMS) contains all of the discrete (non-LOE) work packages
represented in the cost tool. LOE work is not required to be included in the IMS. The proper
integration of these two systems is critical to the accuracy of performance data produced by the
EVMS. An electronic copy of the IMS with WP number references and an electronic copy of a
cost tool report down to the WP level are required to perform this metric. In the IMS, filter out
any WPs with an LOE EVT. Note the number of discrete work packages in the schedule. In the
cost tool report (possible wlnsight), filter out any WPs with an LOE EVT. Note the number of
discrete work
packages in the cost tool. The formula to calculate the metric is as follows:
Integration % =
# of discrete WPs in IMS
# of discrete WPs in cost tool
× 100
EVMS PROGRAM ANALYSIS PAMPHLET OCT 2012
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The numerator was selected because it is often the case that less work packages are included in
the IMS than in the cost tool. However, the opposite may be the case. If this percentage is less
than 100%, it indicates some discrete work packages are missing from the IMS. If the
percentage is greater than 100%, some discrete work packages are missing from the cost tool. A
percentage of 100% indicates perfect integration. If the metric is not 100%, investigate which
work packages are missing and document any rationale. Corrective action may be required if
supporting rationale is
insufficient.
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6.0 ADDITIONAL RESOURCES
1. EVMS 104, “Predictive Analysis Training EVMS 104” – This course addresses EVMS
Specialist training that supports EVM Program Analysis in the techniques required to
produce a standard, uniform product regardless of external demand requirements including
Data Integrity Indicators, Performance Indicators, and the DCMA Trip-Wire metrics and
thresholds. The combination of these analysis techniques provides unbiased insights into
program cost, schedule, and/or performance issues. The instruction requirements supporting
this training for EVM Program Analysis are included in the MPS and PAI. The SPA
Analysis Workbook is available through DCMA and ESCP courses including EVMS 104.
2. EVMS 203, “Critical Path Analysis” – This course teaches the student how to identify the
Program Critical Path and presents four predictive analysis techniques employed in schedule
analysis. After error checks are performed and metrics are collected, the analyst commences
in-depth schedule analysis. If the analysts come to the conclusion that the schedule is able to
calculate a valid critical path based on the results thus far, then the four point final appraisal
can begin. The four point Schedule Predictive Analysis consists of two "Achievability
Measures" and two "Program Forecast Completion Dates."
3. ENGR 120, “Integrated Master Plan/Schedule” – This training is designed to improve skill
levels of the technical workforce (Engineers, PIs, QA, IS, and EVMS Specialists) in the area
of the Integrated Master Plan (IMP) and Integrated Master Schedule (IMS) with a view to (1)
determining whether the program plans and schedules are realistic and (2) monitoring
progress in accordance with the plan and schedule. It identifies techniques, tools, and
reference materials necessary to conduct analysis of IMP/IMS in support of DCMA
responsibilities. The training includes case studies and is available for local CMO schedule
analysis trainings and much more in support of the Agency efforts. The importance of
IMP/IMS understanding, analysis, and application in tracking and managing program
performance is being emphasized
from all sectors of DoD with specific responsibilities
increasingly delegated to
DCMA. As the acquisition program management plan, IMP and
IMS are fundamental management tools that are critical to performing effective planning,
scheduling, and execution of work efforts as well as for tracking total program performance,
EVMS PROGRAM ANALYSIS PAMPHLET OCT 2012
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all aspects of it including risk mitigation efforts, on a day-to-day basis. EV and other diverse
ranges of management and control tools are integrated and utilized within IMP/IMS for
successful program execution and best solution.
4. “Examining the Comprehensive Estimate-at-Completion” is a document which examines the
prudent application of the Comprehensive Estimate-at-Completion (CEAC) and its pragmatic
analysis and assessment to support the creation of the final report. The CEAC is to be done
at least annually for all contractors and subcontractors wishing to remain compliant to the
Federal Acquisition Regulations (FAR) requirement for DOD EVMS. DCMA’s CEAC
assessment is an opportunity to evaluate the CEAC and include all the available information.
The better we perform our evaluation of the contractor/subcontractor’s CEAC, the more
likely the government Program Management Office (PMO), Program Executive Office
(PEO), and the Milestone Decision Authority (MDA) will be able to perform their
responsibilities including making Cost AS an Independent Variable (CAIV) decisions while
sufficient funds and time are available. This document can be found on the DCMA Website.
5. DAU Gold Card – The DAU Gold Card is a single-sheet reference that defines common
Earned Value (EV) terminology, lists EV metric equations, and labels the most common EV
graph. The Current Gold Card is usually reviewed and updated annually and can be found at
the Acquisition Community Connection web site at
https://acc.dau.mil/evm.
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7.0 APPENDIX: ACRONYM GLOSSARY
AA Advance Agreement
ACWP Actual Cost of Work Performed
ASAP As-Soon-As-Possible
BAC Budget at Completion
BCWP Budgeted Cost for Work Performed
BCWS Budgeted Cost for Work Scheduled
BEI Baseline Execution Index
BRP Baseline Revision Percentage
CA Control Accounts
CAP Corrective Action Plan
CAR Corrective Action Request
CBB Contract Budget Base
CDR Critical Design Review
CFSR Contract Funds Status Report
CMO Contract Management Office
CPI Cost Performance Index
CPL Critical Path Length
CPLI Critical Path Length Index
CPR Contract Performance Report
CRI Compliance Review Instruction
CV Cost Variance
CWBS Contract Work Breakdown Structure
DAES Defense Acquisition Executive Summary
DCMA Defense Contract Management Agency
DID Data Item Description
EAC Estimate at Completion
EOM End of Month
EOY End of Year
ESCP EVMS Specialist Certification Program
EVMS PROGRAM ANALYSIS PAMPHLET OCT 2012
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EV Earned Value
EVMS Earned Value Management System
EVMSPAP EVMS Program Analysis Pamphlet
EVT Earned Value Technique
FF Finish-to-Finish
FNET Finish-No-Earlier-Than
FNLT Finish-No-Later-Than
FS Finish-to-Start
IBR Integrated Baseline Review
IEAC Independent Estimate at Completion
IMS Integrated Master Schedule
IPMR Integrated Program Management Report
LOA Letter of Acceptance
LOE Level of Effort
LRE Latest Revised Estimate
MFO Must-Finish-On
MPS Major Program Support
MSO Must-Start-On
OTB Over Target Baseline
OTS Over Target Schedule
PAR Program Assessment Report
PDR Preliminary Design Review
%comp Percent Complete
%MR Management Reserve
PI Performance Indicator
PMB Performance Measurement Baseline
PST Programs Support Teams
SF Start-to-Finish
SNET Start-No-Earlier-Than
SNLT Start-No-Later-Than
EVMS PROGRAM ANALYSIS PAMPHLET OCT 2012
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SPI Schedule Performance Index
SS Start-to-Start
SSI Standard Surveillance Instruction
SV Schedule Variance
TAB Total Allocated Budget
TCPI To Complete Performance Index
TF Total Float
VAC Variance at Completion
VR Validation Reviews
WBS Work Breakdown Structure
WP Work Package
